Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) Fair Value 2026

LYFT · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) trades at $15.76, versus a $26.38 median fair value across its 7 active models — 67.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.14.

Key Facts

Ticker
LYFT
Price
$15.76
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +161.0% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $26.38, 67.4% above the current price of $15.76. Estimates range from $1.39 to $45.58. LYFT scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. LYFT’s +67.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -20.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lyft, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LYFT?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.14 +161.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.38 +67.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1.39 -91.2%
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What Is LYFT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $1.39 to $45.58

CirclFi's 7 active models place Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) between $1.39 and $45.58 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $26.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LYFT, against a current price of $15.76.

Low · First ChicagoHigh · FTNN
$1.39median $26.38$45.58
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFirst Chicago$1.39
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$45.58
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LYFT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LYFT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lyft, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $26.38. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $15.76 (implied upside of +67.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +189.2% (fair value: $45.58), while First Chicago is the most conservative at -91.2% ($1.39). The spread between these extremes — +280.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LYFT?

7 of 13 models are currently active for LYFT. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LYFT is $26.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.14 on its own, implying +161.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LYFT Rank in Software - Application?

Among 261 Software - Application stocks, LYFT ranks #65 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places LYFT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a software business, Lyft, Inc. operates in a sector where net revenue retention (NRR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LYFT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LYFT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LYFT a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Lyft, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Lyft, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +280.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LYFT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LYFT's 7 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lyft, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

WDAYWorkday, Inc.QOC 8.2SRADSportradar Group AGQOC 8.1OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 8.2PERFPerfect Corp.QOC 8.1SSNCSS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2NATLNCR Atleos CorporationQOC 8.1SVCOSilvaco Group, Inc.QOC 6.7RTBRTB Digital, Inc.QOC 5.0BIYABaiya International Group Inc.QOC 2.3ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: WDAY · SRAD · OOMA · PERF · SSNC · NATL · SVCO · RTB · BIYA · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LYFT?

7 companies across all industries closest to LYFT’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

SEBSeaboard CorporationQOC 8.2MFINMedallion Financial Corp.QOC 8.1SGUStar Group, L.P.QOC 8.2ZBRAZebra Technologies CorporationQOC 8.1PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.2CBCCentral Bancompany, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SEB · MFIN · SGU · ZBRA · PENG · CBC · NVDA

Where Does LYFT Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

LYFT is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lyft, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Lyft, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lyft, Inc. (LYFT)'s intrinsic value at $26.38 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.39 to $45.58. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.14 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LYFT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.76, 6 of 7 active models suggest LYFT may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $26.38, 67.4% above the current price of $15.76 — a consensus view that LYFT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lyft, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for LYFT?

Lyft, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LYFT?

CirclFi analyzes LYFT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LYFT?

Of the 7 models currently active on LYFT, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $45.58 per share, and First Chicago is the most bearish at $1.39. CirclFi's published fair value for LYFT is the median of that range, $26.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LYFT a value trap in 2026?

Lyft, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) has a median fair value of $26.38 — 67.4% above the current price of $15.76 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LYFT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LYFT valuation
  • Financial statements: Lyft, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001759509) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LYFT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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