The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Fair Value 2026

DIS · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) trades at $104.03, versus a $69.48 median fair value across its 10 active models — 33.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $71.34.

Key Facts

Ticker
DIS
Price
$104.03
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $69.48, 33.2% below the current price of $104.03. Estimates range from $30.22 to $178.85. DIS scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. DIS’s -33.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -27.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Walt Disney Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DIS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($104.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.34 -31.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $50.84 -51.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $71.40 -31.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $67.62 -35.0%
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What Is DIS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $30.22 to $178.85

CirclFi's 10 active models place The Walt Disney Company (DIS) between $30.22 and $178.85 per share, a spread of 214% of the median. The median of that range — $69.48 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DIS, against a current price of $104.03.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$30.22median $69.48$178.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$30.22
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$178.85
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DIS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DIS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Walt Disney Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $69.48. Trading at $104.03, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -33.2%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $178.85 (+71.9%), versus ML-RIV at $30.22 (-71.0%). This +142.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DIS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DIS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DIS is $69.48 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $71.34 on its own, implying -31.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DIS Rank in Entertainment?

Among 50 Entertainment stocks, DIS ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places DIS in the top tier.

The Walt Disney Company's positioning within the Entertainment segment means that subscriber churn rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including broadband subscriber growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DIS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DIS a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The Walt Disney Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Walt Disney Company scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +142.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DIS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DIS's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Walt Disney Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.2LFSLeifras Co., Ltd.QOC 8.1NWSNews CorporationQOC 8.4SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc.QOC 8.1NWSANews CorporationQOC 8.4MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.QOC 8.1MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1AHROAuthentic Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.6AASPAgassi Sports Entertainment Corp.QOC 4.5NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: LYV · LFS · NWS · SIRI · NWSA · MSGE · MCS · AHRO · AASP · NFLX · IMAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DIS?

6 companies across all industries closest to DIS’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

HFBLHome Federal Bancorp, Inc. of LouisianaQOC 8.2CVNACarvana Co.QOC 8.2STZConstellation Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2BCSBarclays PLCQOC 8.2BGCBGC Group, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HFBL · CVNA · STZ · BCS · BGC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Walt Disney Company’s Valuation?

What is The Walt Disney Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Walt Disney Company (DIS)'s intrinsic value at $69.48 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $30.22 to $178.85. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $71.34 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DIS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $104.03, 3 of 10 active models suggest DIS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $69.48, 33.2% below the current price of $104.03 — a consensus view that DIS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Walt Disney Company's business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for DIS?

The Walt Disney Company's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DIS?

CirclFi analyzes DIS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DIS?

Of the 10 models currently active on DIS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $178.85 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $30.22. CirclFi's published fair value for DIS is the median of that range, $69.48, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 214% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DIS a value trap in 2026?

The Walt Disney Company's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has a median fair value of $69.48 — 33.2% below the current price of $104.03 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DIS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DIS valuation
  • Financial statements: The Walt Disney Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001744489) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DIS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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