Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Fair Value 2026

MTN · Resorts & Casinos ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) trades at $144.61, versus a $127.53 median fair value across its 11 active models — 11.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $82.25.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTN
Price
$144.61
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +224.6% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $127.53, 11.8% below the current price of $144.61. Estimates range from $22.16 to $469.45. MTN scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MTN’s -11.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Resorts & Casinos sector median is +5.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vail Resorts, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MTN?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($144.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $82.25 -43.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $29.82 -79.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $115.05 -20.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $469.45 +224.6%
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What Is MTN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $22.16 to $469.45

CirclFi's 11 active models place Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) between $22.16 and $469.45 per share, a spread of 351% of the median. The median of that range — $127.53 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MTN, against a current price of $144.61.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$22.16median $127.53$469.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$22.16
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$469.45
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MTN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MTN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Vail Resorts, Inc. at its current price of $144.61. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $127.53 (-11.8% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $469.45 (+224.6%), versus EROIC at $22.16 (-84.7%). This +309.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MTN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MTN. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MTN is $127.53 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $82.25 on its own, implying -43.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTN Rank in Resorts & Casinos?

Among 18 Resorts & Casinos stocks, MTN ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Vail Resorts, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MTN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTN a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Vail Resorts, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Vail Resorts, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +309.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTN's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vail Resorts, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Resorts & Casinos Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Resorts & Casinos stocks with 13-model coverage

RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.3BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 7.8LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.QOC 8.6WYNNWynn Resorts, LimitedQOC 7.7MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.QOC 9.3MGMMGM Resorts InternationalQOC 7.6HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.QOC 7.4CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc.QOC 6.3MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment LimitedQOC 2.8TBTCTable Trac, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: RRR · BYD · LVS · WYNN · MCRI · MGM · HGV · CNTY · MLCO · TBTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MTN?

7 companies across all industries closest to MTN’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

CPBICentral Plains Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8MUSAMurphy USA Inc.QOC 7.8GPNGlobal Payments Inc.QOC 7.8LZLegalZoom.com, Inc.QOC 7.8EMBCEmbecta Corp.QOC 7.8PACSPACS Group, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CPBI · MUSA · GPN · LZ · EMBC · PACS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vail Resorts, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Vail Resorts, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)'s intrinsic value at $127.53 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $22.16 to $469.45. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $82.25 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $144.61, 3 of 11 active models suggest MTN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $127.53, 11.8% below the current price of $144.61 — a consensus view that MTN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vail Resorts, Inc.'s business model in Resorts & Casinos.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for MTN?

Vail Resorts, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTN?

CirclFi analyzes MTN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MTN?

Of the 11 models currently active on MTN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $469.45 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $22.16. CirclFi's published fair value for MTN is the median of that range, $127.53, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 351% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MTN a value trap in 2026?

Vail Resorts, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) has a median fair value of $127.53 — 11.8% below the current price of $144.61 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MTN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MTN valuation
  • Financial statements: Vail Resorts, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000812011) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MTN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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