Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) Fair Value 2026

MSGE · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) trades at $78.15, versus a $65.20 median fair value across its 9 active models — 16.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $142.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSGE
Price
$78.15
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +82.5% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $65.20, 16.6% below the current price of $78.15. Estimates range from $9.40 to $142.63. MSGE scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MSGE’s -16.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -27.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MSGE?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $142.63 +82.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $65.20 -16.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $96.54 +23.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.40 -88.0%
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What Is MSGE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $9.40 to $142.63

CirclFi's 9 active models place Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) between $9.40 and $142.63 per share, a spread of 204% of the median. The median of that range — $65.20 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MSGE, against a current price of $78.15.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$9.40median $65.20$142.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$9.40
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$142.63
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MSGE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MSGE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $65.20. Trading at $78.15, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -16.6%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $142.63 (+82.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $9.40 (-88.0%). This +170.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MSGE?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MSGE. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MSGE is $65.20 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $142.63 on its own, implying +82.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSGE Rank in Entertainment?

Among 53 Entertainment stocks, MSGE ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places MSGE in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Entertainment Stocks →

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s positioning within the Entertainment segment means that capital intensity ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including content bundling strategy — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MSGE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSGE a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +170.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSGE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSGE's 9 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc.QOC 8.1WMGWarner Music Group Corp.QOC 7.9LFSLeifras Co., Ltd.QOC 8.1VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc.QOC 7.7DISThe Walt Disney CompanyQOC 8.2AERAAI Era Corp.QOC 7.6PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.5RDIBReading International, Inc.QOC 5.4VYREVyre NetworkQOC 2.2NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: SIRI · WMG · LFS · VSNT · DIS · AERA · PLAY · RDIB · VYRE · NFLX · IMAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MSGE?

7 companies across all industries closest to MSGE’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.QOC 8.1AVNTAvient CorporationQOC 8.1EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.QOC 8.1CAASChina Automotive Systems, Inc.QOC 8.1APAAPA CorporationQOC 8.1KNSAKiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plcQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BBY · AVNT · EDU · CAAS · APA · KNSA · NVDA

Where Does MSGE Sit in CirclFi's Entertainment Rankings?

MSGE is ranked against every other Entertainment stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Entertainment stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE)'s intrinsic value at $65.20 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.40 to $142.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $142.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSGE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.15, 3 of 9 active models suggest MSGE may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $65.20, 16.6% below the current price of $78.15 — a consensus view that MSGE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for MSGE?

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSGE?

CirclFi analyzes MSGE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MSGE?

Of the 9 models currently active on MSGE, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $142.63 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $9.40. CirclFi's published fair value for MSGE is the median of that range, $65.20, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 204% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MSGE a value trap in 2026?

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE) has a median fair value of $65.20 — 16.6% below the current price of $78.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MSGE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MSGE valuation

Market data for MSGE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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