Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) Fair Value 2026

MSGS · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) trades at $402.07, versus a $40.67 median fair value across its 6 active models — 89.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSGS
Price
$402.07
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $40.67, 89.9% below the current price of $402.07. Estimates range from $7.74 to $83.75. MSGS scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MSGS’s -89.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -27.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MSGS?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($402.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $41.72 -89.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $42.17 -89.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $83.75 -79.2%
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What Is MSGS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $7.74 to $83.75

CirclFi's 6 active models place Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) between $7.74 and $83.75 per share, a spread of 187% of the median. The median of that range — $40.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MSGS, against a current price of $402.07.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Markov DDM
$7.74median $40.67$83.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$7.74
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$83.75
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MSGS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MSGS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $40.67. Trading at its current price of $402.07, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -89.9%.

What Do the Models Say About MSGS?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MSGS. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MSGS is $40.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSGS Rank in Entertainment?

Among 50 Entertainment stocks, MSGS ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

The Entertainment sector introduces analytical considerations specific to media and communications company businesses. For Madison Square Garden Sports Corp., metrics like capital intensity ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MSGS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSGS a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+18.9% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSGS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSGS's 6 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

AERAAI Era Corp.QOC 7.6TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc.QOC 7.7RSVRReservoir Media, Inc.QOC 7.4WMGWarner Music Group Corp.QOC 7.9AMCXAMC Global Media Inc.QOC 7.2IQiQIYI, Inc.QOC 6.3ANGHAnghami Inc.QOC 5.3FOXAFox CorporationQOC 8.5NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: AERA · TKO · VSNT · RSVR · WMG · AMCX · IQ · ANGH · FOXA · NFLX · IMAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MSGS?

7 companies across all industries closest to MSGS’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

SIBNSI-BONE, Inc.QOC 7.5MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5OMFOneMain Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5CALYCallaway Golf CompanyQOC 7.5HBBHamilton Beach Brands Holding CompanyQOC 7.5RLJRLJ Lodging TrustQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SIBN · MUR · OMF · CALY · HBB · RLJ · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS)'s intrinsic value at $40.67 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $7.74 to $83.75. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSGS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $402.07, 0 of 6 active models suggest MSGS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $40.67, 89.9% below the current price of $402.07 — a consensus view that MSGS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.'s business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for MSGS?

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSGS?

CirclFi analyzes MSGS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MSGS?

Of the 6 models currently active on MSGS, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $83.75 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $7.74. CirclFi's published fair value for MSGS is the median of that range, $40.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 187% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MSGS a value trap in 2026?

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) has a median fair value of $40.67 — 89.9% below the current price of $402.07 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MSGS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MSGS valuation
  • Financial statements: Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001636519) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MSGS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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