Madison Square Garden Sports Co (MSGS) Fair Value 2026

MSGS · Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Madison Square Garden Sports Co (MSGS) trades at $386.39, approximately 2145% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $17.21. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSGS
Price
$386.39
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($386.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$17.21 -95.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$84.06 -78.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$95.71 -75.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$28.72 -92.6%

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What Is Madison Square Garden Sports Co (MSGS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Madison Square Garden Sports Co's intrinsic value is estimated at $114.33. Trading at its current price of $386.39, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -70.4%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $370.81 (-4.0%), versus Bayesian DCF at $17.21 (-95.5%). This +91.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MSGS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MSGS. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates MSGS's intrinsic value at $17.21, implying -95.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSGS Rank in Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation?

Among 22 Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation stocks, MSGS ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

Madison Square Garden Sports Co operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MSGS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSGS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Madison Square Garden Sports Co. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Madison Square Garden Sports Co scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSGS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSGS's 12 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Madison Square Garden Sports Co Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: MSGE · SGHC · PRKS · DIS · PRSU

Frequently Asked Questions About Madison Square Garden Sports Co

What is Madison Square Garden Sports Co's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Madison Square Garden Sports Co (MSGS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $17.21. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSGS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $386.39, 0 of 12 active models suggest MSGS may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Madison Square Garden Sports Co's business model in Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for MSGS?

Madison Square Garden Sports Co's QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSGS?

CirclFi analyzes MSGS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MSGS a value trap in 2026?

Madison Square Garden Sports Co's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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