DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) Fair Value 2026

DKNG · Gambling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) trades at $24.22, versus a $10.81 median fair value across its 8 active models — 55.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $21.56.

Key Facts

Ticker
DKNG
Price
$24.22
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $10.81, 55.4% below the current price of $24.22. Estimates range from $0.67 to $39.31. DKNG scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DKNG’s -55.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy DraftKings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DKNG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.56 -11.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.75 -51.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $3.38 -86.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.86 -59.3%
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What Is DKNG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.67 to $39.31

CirclFi's 8 active models place DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) between $0.67 and $39.31 per share, a spread of 358% of the median. The median of that range — $10.81 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DKNG, against a current price of $24.22.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$0.67median $10.81$39.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.67
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$39.31
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DKNG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DKNG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, DraftKings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.81. Trading at its current price of $24.22, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -55.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +62.3% (fair value: $39.31), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -97.2% ($0.67). The spread between these extremes — +159.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DKNG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for DKNG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DKNG is $10.81 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $21.56 on its own, implying -11.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DKNG Rank in Gambling?

Among 17 Gambling stocks, DKNG ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

DraftKings Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is DKNG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DKNG a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for DraftKings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, DraftKings Inc. earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +159.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DKNG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DKNG's 8 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy DraftKings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gambling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Gambling stocks with 13-model coverage

SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 7.6MRDNMeridian Holdings Inc.QOC 7.2LNWOLight & Wonder, Inc.QOC 8.0CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.QOC 7.1GLXZGalaxy Gaming, Inc.QOC 8.1INSEInspired Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.6FLUTFlutter Entertainment plcQOC 6.3VIPZVIP Play, Inc.QOC 4.1CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: SGHC · MRDN · LNWO · CDRO · GLXZ · INSE · FLUT · VIPZ · CHDN · ACEL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DKNG?

7 companies across all industries closest to DKNG’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

HSHPHimalaya Shipping Ltd.QOC 7.4MNDYmonday.com Ltd.QOC 7.4BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4ROGRogers CorporationQOC 7.4TYFGTri-County Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HSHP · MNDY · BATL · BXC · ROG · TYFG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About DraftKings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is DraftKings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)'s intrinsic value at $10.81 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.67 to $39.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $21.56 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DKNG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.22, 1 of 8 active models suggest DKNG may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $10.81, 55.4% below the current price of $24.22 — a consensus view that DKNG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits DraftKings Inc.'s business model in Gambling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for DKNG?

DraftKings Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DKNG?

CirclFi analyzes DKNG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DKNG?

Of the 8 models currently active on DKNG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $39.31 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.67. CirclFi's published fair value for DKNG is the median of that range, $10.81, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 358% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DKNG a value trap in 2026?

DraftKings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) has a median fair value of $10.81 — 55.4% below the current price of $24.22 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DKNG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DKNG valuation
  • Financial statements: DraftKings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001883685) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DKNG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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