Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Fair Value 2026

SGHC · Gambling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) trades at $11.43, versus a $7.42 median fair value across its 11 active models — 35.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.06.

Key Facts

Ticker
SGHC
Price
$11.43
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +9.1% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $7.42, 35.1% below the current price of $11.43. Estimates range from $2.21 to $22.87. SGHC scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SGHC’s -35.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Super Group (SGHC) Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SGHC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.06 -20.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.33 -70.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.42 -35.1%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $12.47 +9.1%
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What Is SGHC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.21 to $22.87

CirclFi's 11 active models place Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) between $2.21 and $22.87 per share, a spread of 279% of the median. The median of that range — $7.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SGHC, against a current price of $11.43.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$2.21median $7.42$22.87
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$2.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$22.87
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SGHC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SGHC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Super Group (SGHC) Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $7.42, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $11.43. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-35.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $22.87 (+100.1%), versus EROIC at $2.21 (-80.7%). This +180.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SGHC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SGHC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SGHC is $7.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.06 on its own, implying -20.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SGHC Rank in Gambling?

Among 17 Gambling stocks, SGHC ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SGHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SGHC a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Super Group (SGHC) Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Super Group (SGHC) Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +180.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SGHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SGHC's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Super Group (SGHC) Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gambling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Gambling stocks with 13-model coverage

LNWOLight & Wonder, Inc.QOC 8.0DKNGDraftKings Inc.QOC 7.4GLXZGalaxy Gaming, Inc.QOC 8.1CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.QOC 7.3RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.QOC 8.3MRDNMeridian Holdings Inc.QOC 7.2INSEInspired Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.7VIPZVIP Play, Inc.QOC 5.1ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: LNWO · DKNG · GLXZ · CDRO · RSI · MRDN · INSE · VIPZ · ACEL · CHDN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SGHC?

7 companies across all industries closest to SGHC’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyQOC 7.6IZEAIZEA Worldwide, Inc.QOC 7.6SUISun Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.QOC 7.6LGCYLegacy Education Inc.QOC 7.6MVSTMicrovast Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ALGT · IZEA · SUI · GILT · LGCY · MVST · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Super Group (SGHC) Limited’s Valuation?

What is Super Group (SGHC) Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC)'s intrinsic value at $7.42 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.21 to $22.87. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.06 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.43, 2 of 11 active models suggest SGHC may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $7.42, 35.1% below the current price of $11.43 — a consensus view that SGHC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Super Group (SGHC) Limited's business model in Gambling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for SGHC?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SGHC?

CirclFi analyzes SGHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SGHC?

Of the 11 models currently active on SGHC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $22.87 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $2.21. CirclFi's published fair value for SGHC is the median of that range, $7.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 279% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SGHC a value trap in 2026?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited's Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) has a median fair value of $7.42 — 35.1% below the current price of $11.43 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SGHC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SGHC valuation
  • Financial statements: Super Group (SGHC) Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001878057) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SGHC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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