Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Fair Value 2026

SGHC · Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) trades at $15.16, approximately 27% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.99. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SGHC
Price
$15.16
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +62.6% upside with 33% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$11.99 -21.0%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$4.70 -69.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$10.94 -27.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$24.66 +62.6%

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What Is Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Super Group (SGHC) Limited at its current price of $15.17. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $11.67 (-23.1% average return), with 9 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $29.26 (+93.0%), versus Dynamic NAV at $0.44 (-97.1%). This +190.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SGHC?

13 of 13 models are currently active for SGHC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SGHC's intrinsic value at $11.99, implying -21.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SGHC Rank in Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation?

Among 22 Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation stocks, SGHC ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places SGHC in the top tier.

Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SGHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SGHC a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Super Group (SGHC) Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Super Group (SGHC) Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +190.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SGHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SGHC's 13 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Super Group (SGHC) Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: MSGE · PRKS · DIS · PRSU · MTN

Frequently Asked Questions About Super Group (SGHC) Limited

What is Super Group (SGHC) Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $11.99. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SGHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.16, 2 of 13 active models suggest SGHC may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Super Group (SGHC) Limited's business model in Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for SGHC?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SGHC?

CirclFi analyzes SGHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SGHC a value trap in 2026?

Super Group (SGHC) Limited's Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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