Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Fair Value 2026

CHDN · Gambling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) trades at $86.51, versus a $95.97 median fair value across its 11 active models — 10.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $95.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
CHDN
Price
$86.51
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +114.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $95.97, 10.9% above the current price of $86.51. Estimates range from $30.61 to $185.29. CHDN scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CHDN’s +10.9% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CHDN?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($86.51)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $95.97 +10.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $96.49 +11.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $185.29 +114.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.61 -64.6%
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What Is CHDN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $30.61 to $185.29

CirclFi's 11 active models place Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) between $30.61 and $185.29 per share, a spread of 161% of the median. The median of that range — $95.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CHDN, against a current price of $86.51.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$30.61median $95.97$185.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$30.61
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$185.29
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CHDN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CHDN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Churchill Downs Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $95.97, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $86.51. While the median implied return is +10.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +178.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $185.29 (+114.2%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $30.61 (-64.6%). This +178.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Churchill Downs Incorporated's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CHDN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CHDN. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CHDN is $95.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $95.97 on its own, implying +10.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CHDN Rank in Gambling?

Among 17 Gambling stocks, CHDN ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places CHDN in the top tier.

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CHDN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHDN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Churchill Downs Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Churchill Downs Incorporated's fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +178.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CHDN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CHDN's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gambling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Gambling stocks with 13-model coverage

ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.QOC 8.3AAPIApple iSports Group, Inc.QOC 3.1GLXZGalaxy Gaming, Inc.QOC 8.1BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLCQOC 3.2LNWOLight & Wonder, Inc.QOC 8.0SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 7.6INSEInspired Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.6SEGGSports Entertainment Gaming Global CorporationQOC 4.1

Read investment analysis: ACEL · RSI · AAPI · GLXZ · BRSL · LNWO · SGHC · INSE · SEGG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CHDN?

7 companies across all industries closest to CHDN’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6UANCVR Partners, LPQOC 8.6ORIOld Republic International CorporationQOC 8.6AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.QOC 8.6SOGPSound Group Inc.QOC 8.6EZPWEZCORP, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: YETI · UAN · ORI · AXTA · SOGP · EZPW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Churchill Downs Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Churchill Downs Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)'s intrinsic value at $95.97 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $30.61 to $185.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $95.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CHDN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $86.51, 7 of 11 active models suggest CHDN may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $95.97, 10.9% above the current price of $86.51 — a consensus view that CHDN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Churchill Downs Incorporated's business model in Gambling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for CHDN?

Churchill Downs Incorporated's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CHDN?

CirclFi analyzes CHDN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CHDN?

Of the 11 models currently active on CHDN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $185.29 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $30.61. CirclFi's published fair value for CHDN is the median of that range, $95.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 161% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CHDN a value trap in 2026?

Churchill Downs Incorporated's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) has a median fair value of $95.97 — 10.9% above the current price of $86.51 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CHDN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CHDN valuation
  • Financial statements: Churchill Downs Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000020212) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CHDN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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