What Is Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Churchill Downs, Incorporated at $83.75. With an estimated intrinsic value of $100.35 and 7 of 11 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +19.8%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $195.42 (+133.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $9.16 (-89.1%). This +222.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Churchill Downs, Incorporated's intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About CHDN?
11 of 13 models are currently active for CHDN. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CHDN's intrinsic value at $104.96, implying +25.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does CHDN Rank in Services-Racing, Including Track Operation?
Among 2 Services-Racing, Including Track Operation stocks, CHDN ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places CHDN in the top tier.
Churchill Downs, Incorporated operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is CHDN a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHDN a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
11 of 13 models are active for Churchill Downs, Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Churchill Downs, Incorporated's fundamental quality profile registers 9.4/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +222.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every CHDN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across CHDN's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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