Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) Fair Value 2026

BRSL · Gambling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) trades at $11.57, versus a $14.62 median fair value across its 2 active models — 26.4% above the current price. QOC: 3.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BRSL
Price
$11.57
Quality Score
3.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +49.0% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $14.62, 26.4% above the current price of $11.57. Estimates range from $12.00 to $17.24. BRSL scores 3.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BRSL’s +26.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Brightstar Lottery PLC Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BRSL?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $12.00 +3.7%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $17.24 +49.0%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Brightstar Lottery PLC's intrinsic value is estimated at $14.62, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $11.57. With a median implied return of +26.4% across a split 1–0 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +45.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +49.0% (fair value: $17.24), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at +3.7% ($12.00). The spread between these extremes — +45.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BRSL?

2 of 13 models are currently active for BRSL. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BRSL is $14.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BRSL Rank in Gambling?

Among 17 Gambling stocks, BRSL ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.2 signals below-average fundamentals.

Brightstar Lottery PLC operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BRSL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BRSL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Brightstar Lottery PLC. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Brightstar Lottery PLC is rated at 3.2/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +45.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BRSL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BRSL's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Brightstar Lottery PLC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gambling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Gambling stocks with 13-model coverage

VIPZVIP Play, Inc.QOC 4.1AAPIApple iSports Group, Inc.QOC 3.1SEGGSports Entertainment Gaming Global CorporationQOC 4.1ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9ROLRHigh Roller Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.6CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.QOC 8.3DKNGDraftKings Inc.QOC 7.4FLUTFlutter Entertainment plcQOC 6.3

Read investment analysis: VIPZ · AAPI · SEGG · ACEL · ROLR · CHDN · RSI · DKNG · FLUT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BRSL?

7 companies across all industries closest to BRSL’s Quality of Company score of 3.2/10.

NUCLEagle Nuclear Energy Corp.QOC 3.2TUTHStandard Dental Labs Inc.QOC 3.2BMPABMP AI Technologies, Inc.QOC 3.2DSGXThe Descartes Systems Group Inc.QOC 3.2NRHINatural Resource Holdings, Inc.QOC 3.2SIMOSilicon Motion Technology CorporationQOC 3.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NUCL · TUTH · BMPA · DSGX · NRHI · SIMO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Brightstar Lottery PLC’s Valuation?

What is Brightstar Lottery PLC's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)'s intrinsic value at $14.62 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $12.00 to $17.24. The Quality of Company score is 3.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BRSL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.57, 2 of 2 active models suggest BRSL may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $14.62, 26.4% above the current price of $11.57 — a consensus view that BRSL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Brightstar Lottery PLC's business model in Gambling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.2 mean for BRSL?

Brightstar Lottery PLC's QOC of 3.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BRSL?

CirclFi analyzes BRSL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BRSL a value trap in 2026?

Brightstar Lottery PLC's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) has a median fair value of $14.62 — 26.4% above the current price of $11.57 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BRSL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BRSL valuation
  • Financial statements: Brightstar Lottery PLC 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001619762) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BRSL as of ; valuations recomputed .