Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) Fair Value 2026

FLUT · Gambling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) trades at $95.01, versus a $48.13 median fair value across its 9 active models — 49.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $48.13.

Key Facts

Ticker
FLUT
Price
$95.01
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +99.4% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $48.13, 49.3% below the current price of $95.01. Estimates range from $19.67 to $189.46. FLUT scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FLUT’s -49.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Flutter Entertainment plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FLUT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($95.01)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $48.13 -49.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $58.53 -38.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $189.46 +99.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $83.86 -11.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 5 additional models including EROIC Spread, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 9 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is FLUT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $19.67 to $189.46

CirclFi's 9 active models place Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) between $19.67 and $189.46 per share, a spread of 353% of the median. The median of that range — $48.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FLUT, against a current price of $95.01.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · First Chicago
$19.67median $48.13$189.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$19.67
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$189.46
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FLUT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FLUT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Flutter Entertainment plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $48.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $95.01. With 7 out of 9 models flagging downside (-49.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $189.46 (+99.4%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $19.67 (-79.3%). This +178.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Flutter Entertainment plc's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FLUT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for FLUT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FLUT is $48.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $48.13 on its own, implying -49.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FLUT Rank in Gambling?

Among 17 Gambling stocks, FLUT ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Flutter Entertainment plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FLUT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FLUT a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Flutter Entertainment plc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Flutter Entertainment plc is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +178.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FLUT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FLUT's 9 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Flutter Entertainment plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gambling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Gambling stocks with 13-model coverage

INSEInspired Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.6BRAGBragg Gaming Group Inc.QOC 6.2CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.QOC 7.1ROLRHigh Roller Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.6MRDNMeridian Holdings Inc.QOC 7.2SEGGSports Entertainment Gaming Global CorporationQOC 4.1VIPZVIP Play, Inc.QOC 4.1CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 7.6ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: INSE · BRAG · CDRO · ROLR · MRDN · SEGG · VIPZ · CHDN · SGHC · ACEL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FLUT?

7 companies across all industries closest to FLUT’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

KLCKinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.QOC 6.3FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.QOC 6.3CATOThe Cato CorporationQOC 6.3GLEGlobal Engine Group Holding LimitedQOC 6.3WPPWPP plcQOC 6.3MSTRStrategy IncQOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KLC · FLY · CATO · GLE · WPP · MSTR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Flutter Entertainment plc’s Valuation?

What is Flutter Entertainment plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)'s intrinsic value at $48.13 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $19.67 to $189.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $48.13 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FLUT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $95.01, 2 of 9 active models suggest FLUT may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $48.13, 49.3% below the current price of $95.01 — a consensus view that FLUT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Flutter Entertainment plc's business model in Gambling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for FLUT?

Flutter Entertainment plc's QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FLUT?

CirclFi analyzes FLUT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FLUT?

Of the 9 models currently active on FLUT, First Chicago is the most bullish at $189.46 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $19.67. CirclFi's published fair value for FLUT is the median of that range, $48.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 353% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FLUT a value trap in 2026?

Flutter Entertainment plc's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) has a median fair value of $48.13 — 49.3% below the current price of $95.01 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FLUT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FLUT valuation
  • Financial statements: Flutter Entertainment plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001635327) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FLUT as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 9 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on FLUT.

Unlock All 9 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

5 models hidden for FLUT Unlock All 9 — $39/mo