Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) Fair Value 2026

MRDN · Gambling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (48/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) trades at $11.17, versus a $16.92 median fair value across its 6 active models — 51.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 48/100 (WARN). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $20.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRDN
Price
$11.17
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
48/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +82.2% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 48 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $16.92, 51.5% above the current price of $11.17. Estimates range from $7.04 to $29.74. MRDN scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 48/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MRDN’s +51.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Meridian Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MRDN?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.17)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.35 +82.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $16.77 +50.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.04 -37.0%
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What Is MRDN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $7.04 to $29.74

CirclFi's 6 active models place Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) between $7.04 and $29.74 per share, a spread of 134% of the median. The median of that range — $16.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MRDN, against a current price of $11.17.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$7.04median $16.92$29.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$7.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$29.74
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MRDN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MRDN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Meridian Holdings Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $11.17. Based on our 13-model framework, Meridian Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $16.92 — representing +51.5% implied upside — with 5 out of 6 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $29.74 (+166.3%), versus ML-RIV at $7.04 (-37.0%). This +203.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MRDN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MRDN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MRDN is $16.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $20.35 on its own, implying +82.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRDN Rank in Gambling?

Among 17 Gambling stocks, MRDN ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Meridian Holdings Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MRDN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRDN a score of 48/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Meridian Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Meridian Holdings Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +203.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRDN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRDN's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Meridian Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gambling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gambling stocks with 13-model coverage

CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.QOC 7.3INSEInspired Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.7DKNGDraftKings Inc.QOC 7.4FLUTFlutter Entertainment plcQOC 6.3SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 7.6BRAGBragg Gaming Group Inc.QOC 6.2ROLRHigh Roller Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.7AAPIApple iSports Group, Inc.QOC 3.1GLXZGalaxy Gaming, Inc.QOC 8.1ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CDRO · INSE · DKNG · FLUT · SGHC · BRAG · ROLR · AAPI · GLXZ · ACEL · CHDN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MRDN?

7 companies across all industries closest to MRDN’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

MRPMillrose Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2RECTRectitude Holdings LtdQOC 7.2LADRLadder Capital CorpQOC 7.2IMOSChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC.QOC 7.2TKCTurkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MRP · ETON · RECT · LADR · IMOS · TKC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Meridian Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Meridian Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN)'s intrinsic value at $16.92 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $7.04 to $29.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $20.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRDN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.17, 5 of 6 active models suggest MRDN may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $16.92, 51.5% above the current price of $11.17 — a consensus view that MRDN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Meridian Holdings Inc.'s business model in Gambling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for MRDN?

Meridian Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRDN?

CirclFi analyzes MRDN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MRDN?

Of the 6 models currently active on MRDN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $29.74 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $7.04. CirclFi's published fair value for MRDN is the median of that range, $16.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 134% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MRDN a value trap in 2026?

Meridian Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 48/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) has a median fair value of $16.92 — 51.5% above the current price of $11.17 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MRDN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MRDN valuation
  • Financial statements: Meridian Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001437925) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MRDN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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