Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) Fair Value 2026

LNWO · Gambling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) trades at $92.60, versus a $164.73 median fair value across its 10 active models — 77.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $176.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
LNWO
Price
$92.60
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +136.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $164.73, 77.9% above the current price of $92.60. Estimates range from $38.62 to $233.36. LNWO scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LNWO’s +77.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Light & Wonder, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LNWO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($92.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $176.40 +90.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $153.06 +65.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $219.37 +136.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.62 -58.3%
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What Is LNWO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $38.62 to $233.36

CirclFi's 10 active models place Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) between $38.62 and $233.36 per share, a spread of 118% of the median. The median of that range — $164.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LNWO, against a current price of $92.60.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$38.62median $164.73$233.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$38.62
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$233.36
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LNWO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LNWO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Light & Wonder, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $164.73, suggesting a +77.9% median upside from the current price of $92.60. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $233.36 (+152.0%), versus EROIC at $38.62 (-58.3%). This +210.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LNWO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for LNWO. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LNWO is $164.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $176.40 on its own, implying +90.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LNWO Rank in Gambling?

Among 17 Gambling stocks, LNWO ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places LNWO in the top tier.

Light & Wonder, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LNWO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LNWO a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Light & Wonder, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Light & Wonder, Inc. scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +210.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LNWO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LNWO's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Light & Wonder, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gambling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Gambling stocks with 13-model coverage

GLXZGalaxy Gaming, Inc.QOC 8.1SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 7.6RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.QOC 8.3DKNGDraftKings Inc.QOC 7.4CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6MRDNMeridian Holdings Inc.QOC 7.2CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.QOC 7.1ROLRHigh Roller Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.6AAPIApple iSports Group, Inc.QOC 3.1ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: GLXZ · SGHC · RSI · DKNG · CHDN · MRDN · CDRO · ROLR · AAPI · ACEL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LNWO?

7 companies across all industries closest to LNWO’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 8.0SSTKShutterstock, Inc.QOC 8.0GRANGrande Group LimitedQOC 8.0RGENRepligen CorporationQOC 8.0PHINPHINIA Inc.QOC 8.0BWABorgWarner Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FANG · SSTK · GRAN · RGEN · PHIN · BWA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Light & Wonder, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Light & Wonder, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)'s intrinsic value at $164.73 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $38.62 to $233.36. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $176.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LNWO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $92.60, 7 of 10 active models suggest LNWO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $164.73, 77.9% above the current price of $92.60 — a consensus view that LNWO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Light & Wonder, Inc.'s business model in Gambling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for LNWO?

Light & Wonder, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LNWO?

CirclFi analyzes LNWO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LNWO?

Of the 10 models currently active on LNWO, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $233.36 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $38.62. CirclFi's published fair value for LNWO is the median of that range, $164.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 118% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LNWO a value trap in 2026?

Light & Wonder, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) has a median fair value of $164.73 — 77.9% above the current price of $92.60 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LNWO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LNWO valuation
  • Financial statements: Light & Wonder, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000750004) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LNWO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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