Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Fair Value 2026

MSBI · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) trades at $32.84, versus a $26.51 median fair value across its 5 active models — 19.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSBI
Price
$32.84
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $26.51, 19.3% below the current price of $32.84. Estimates range from $21.48 to $40.91. MSBI scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MSBI’s -19.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MSBI?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.48 -34.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $26.51 -19.3%
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What Is MSBI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $21.48 to $40.91

CirclFi's 5 active models place Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) between $21.48 and $40.91 per share, a spread of 73% of the median. The median of that range — $26.51 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MSBI, against a current price of $32.84.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$21.48median $26.51$40.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$21.48
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$40.91
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MSBI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Midland States Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $26.51, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $32.84. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-19.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $40.91 (+24.6%), versus EPV at $21.48 (-34.6%). This +59.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MSBI?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MSBI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MSBI is $26.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSBI Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, MSBI ranks #305 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. competes in an environment where loan loss provisions often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MSBI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSBI a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Midland States Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is rated at 6.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +59.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSBI's 5 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

WSBFWaterstone Financial, Inc.QOC 6.9HBNCHorizon Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9AVBHAvidbank Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MSBBMercer Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9BCBPBCB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.0BSACBanco Santander-ChileQOC 6.8PCBPCB BancorpQOC 8.6SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A.QOC 8.2QNBCQNB Corp.QOC 7.8ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: WSBF · HBNC · AVBH · MSBB · BCBP · BSAC · PCB · SUPV · QNBC · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MSBI?

7 companies across all industries closest to MSBI’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

WYWeyerhaeuser CompanyQOC 6.9NOANorth American Construction Group Ltd.QOC 6.9UFIUnifi, Inc.QOC 6.9BANDBandwidth Inc.QOC 6.9BNEDBarnes & Noble Education, Inc.QOC 6.9DAIOData I/O CorporationQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WY · NOA · UFI · BAND · BNED · DAIO · NVDA

Where Does MSBI Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

MSBI is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Midland States Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Midland States Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)'s intrinsic value at $26.51 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $21.48 to $40.91. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSBI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.84, 1 of 5 active models suggest MSBI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $26.51, 19.3% below the current price of $32.84 — a consensus view that MSBI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Midland States Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for MSBI?

Midland States Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSBI?

CirclFi analyzes MSBI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MSBI?

Of the 5 models currently active on MSBI, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $40.91 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $21.48. CirclFi's published fair value for MSBI is the median of that range, $26.51, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 73% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MSBI a value trap in 2026?

Midland States Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) has a median fair value of $26.51 — 19.3% below the current price of $32.84 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MSBI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MSBI valuation
  • Financial statements: Midland States Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001466026) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MSBI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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