Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) Fair Value 2026

ORRF · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) trades at $41.96, versus a $35.27 median fair value across its 6 active models — 15.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORRF
Price
$41.96
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $35.27, 15.9% below the current price of $41.96. Estimates range from $18.04 to $48.35. ORRF scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ORRF’s -15.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ORRF?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($41.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.04 -57.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $31.24 -25.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.31 -56.4%
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What Is ORRF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $18.04 to $48.35

CirclFi's 6 active models place Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) between $18.04 and $48.35 per share, a spread of 86% of the median. The median of that range — $35.27 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ORRF, against a current price of $41.96.

Low · EPVHigh · ML-RIV
$18.04median $35.27$48.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$18.04
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$48.35
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ORRF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. at its current price of $41.96. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $35.27 (-15.9% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +15.2% (fair value: $48.35), while EPV is the most conservative at -57.0% ($18.04). The spread between these extremes — +72.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ORRF?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ORRF. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ORRF is $35.27 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORRF Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, ORRF ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places ORRF in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a financial institution, Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. operates in a sector where net interest margin (NIM) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ORRF should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ORRF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORRF a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +72.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORRF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORRF's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

TCBXThird Coast Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.8NWFLNorwood Financial Corp.QOC 8.8WSFSWSFS Financial CorporationQOC 8.9TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.8BYByline Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9IBOCInternational Bancshares CorporationQOC 8.8CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.3HBIAHills BancorporationQOC 7.9CVBFCVB Financial Corp.QOC 7.3STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: TCBX · NWFL · WSFS · TCBI · BY · IBOC · CARE · HBIA · CVBF · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ORRF?

4 companies across all industries closest to ORRF’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

AYIAcuity Inc.QOC 8.8OSISOSI Systems, Inc.QOC 8.8ELTPElite Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AYI · OSIS · ELTP · NVDA

Where Does ORRF Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

ORRF is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)'s intrinsic value at $35.27 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $18.04 to $48.35. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORRF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $41.96, 2 of 6 active models suggest ORRF may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $35.27, 15.9% below the current price of $41.96 — a consensus view that ORRF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for ORRF?

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORRF?

CirclFi analyzes ORRF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ORRF?

Of the 6 models currently active on ORRF, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $48.35 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $18.04. CirclFi's published fair value for ORRF is the median of that range, $35.27, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 86% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ORRF a value trap in 2026?

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) has a median fair value of $35.27 — 15.9% below the current price of $41.96 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ORRF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ORRF valuation
  • Financial statements: Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000826154) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ORRF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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