Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) Fair Value 2026

ALRS · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) trades at $33.24, versus a $12.86 median fair value across its 5 active models — 61.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALRS
Price
$33.24
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $12.86, 61.3% below the current price of $33.24. Estimates range from $6.94 to $21.67. ALRS scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALRS’s -61.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alerus Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALRS?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.86 -61.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.85 -67.4%
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What Is ALRS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $6.94 to $21.67

CirclFi's 5 active models place Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) between $6.94 and $21.67 per share, a spread of 114% of the median. The median of that range — $12.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALRS, against a current price of $33.24.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$6.94median $12.86$21.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.94
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$21.67
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALRS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALRS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alerus Financial Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $12.86. Trading at its current price of $33.24, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -61.3%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $21.67 (-34.8%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $6.94 (-79.1%). This +44.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alerus Financial Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ALRS?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ALRS. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ALRS is $12.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALRS Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, ALRS ranks #279 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Alerus Financial Corporation's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that loan loss provisions plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALRS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALRS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Alerus Financial Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alerus Financial Corporation earns a quality score of 7.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +44.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALRS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALRS's 5 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alerus Financial Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

BAPCredicorp Ltd.QOC 7.3TFSLTFS Financial CorporationQOC 7.3CVBFCVB Financial Corp.QOC 7.3AUBNAuburn National Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 7.3SRBKSR Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.4MVBFMVB Financial Corp.QOC 7.3IBOCInternational Bancshares CorporationQOC 8.8RBKBRhinebeck Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3GSBCGreat Southern Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BAP · TFSL · CVBF · AUBN · SRBK · MVBF · IBOC · RBKB · GSBC · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALRS?

6 companies across all industries closest to ALRS’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

MIDDThe Middleby CorporationQOC 7.3YDDLOne and one Green Technologies. IncQOC 7.3AGNTAGNT, IncQOC 7.3SUSuncor Energy Inc.QOC 7.3BRZEBraze, Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MIDD · YDDL · AGNT · SU · BRZE · NVDA

Where Does ALRS Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

ALRS is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alerus Financial Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Alerus Financial Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS)'s intrinsic value at $12.86 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.94 to $21.67. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALRS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.24, 0 of 5 active models suggest ALRS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $12.86, 61.3% below the current price of $33.24 — a consensus view that ALRS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alerus Financial Corporation's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for ALRS?

Alerus Financial Corporation's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALRS?

CirclFi analyzes ALRS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALRS?

Of the 5 models currently active on ALRS, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $21.67 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.94. CirclFi's published fair value for ALRS is the median of that range, $12.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 114% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALRS a value trap in 2026?

Alerus Financial Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) has a median fair value of $12.86 — 61.3% below the current price of $33.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALRS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALRS valuation
  • Financial statements: Alerus Financial Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000903419) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALRS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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