BioNTech SE (BNTX) Fair Value 2026

BNTX · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, BioNTech SE (BNTX) trades at $102.08, versus a $57.96 median fair value across its 3 active models — 43.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $57.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
BNTX
Price
$102.08
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +4.6% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BioNTech SE (BNTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, BioNTech SE (BNTX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $57.96, 43.2% below the current price of $102.08. Estimates range from $57.80 to $106.79. BNTX scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BNTX’s -43.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BioNTech SE Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BNTX?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($102.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $57.96 -43.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $106.79 +4.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $57.80 -43.4%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is BNTX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $57.80 to $106.79

CirclFi's 3 active models place BioNTech SE (BNTX) between $57.80 and $106.79 per share, a spread of 85% of the median. The median of that range — $57.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BNTX, against a current price of $102.08.

Low · FTNNHigh · RCMH-DCF
$57.80median $57.96$106.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$57.80
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$106.79
Model agreement0 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BNTX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BioNTech SE (BNTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BioNTech SE's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $57.96. Trading at $102.08, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -43.2%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +4.6% (fair value: $106.79), while FTNN is the most conservative at -43.4% ($57.80). The spread between these extremes — +48.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BNTX?

3 of 13 models are currently active for BNTX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BNTX is $57.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $57.96 on its own, implying -43.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BNTX Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, BNTX ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

BioNTech SE's positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that market exclusivity window plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including first-mover advantage in novel targets — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BNTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BNTX a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for BioNTech SE. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, BioNTech SE earns a quality score of 7.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +48.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BNTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BNTX's 3 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BioNTech SE Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

SPROSpero Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4TLXTelix Pharmaceuticals LimitedQOC 7.2BDTXBlack Diamond Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.5ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 7.2JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plcQOC 7.6ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.QOC 7.2OVIDOvid Therapeutics Inc.QOC 5.7CRVSCorvus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.9HCWBHCW Biologics Inc.QOC 4.2EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: SPRO · TLX · BDTX · ARVN · JAZZ · ARCT · OVID · CRVS · HCWB · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BNTX?

7 companies across all industries closest to BNTX’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

YDDLOne and one Green Technologies. IncQOC 7.3TFSLTFS Financial CorporationQOC 7.3ALRSAlerus Financial CorporationQOC 7.3KWRQuaker Chemical CorporationQOC 7.3AGNTAGNT, IncQOC 7.3SUSuncor Energy Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: YDDL · TFSL · ALRS · KWR · AGNT · SU · NVDA

Where Does BNTX Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

BNTX is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BioNTech SE’s Valuation?

What is BioNTech SE's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BioNTech SE (BNTX)'s intrinsic value at $57.96 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $57.80 to $106.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $57.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BNTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $102.08, 1 of 3 active models suggest BNTX may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $57.96, 43.2% below the current price of $102.08 — a consensus view that BNTX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BioNTech SE's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for BNTX?

BioNTech SE's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BNTX?

CirclFi analyzes BNTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BNTX?

Of the 3 models currently active on BNTX, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $106.79 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $57.80. CirclFi's published fair value for BNTX is the median of that range, $57.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 85% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BNTX a value trap in 2026?

BioNTech SE's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, BioNTech SE (BNTX) has a median fair value of $57.96 — 43.2% below the current price of $102.08 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BNTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BNTX valuation
  • Financial statements: BioNTech SE 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001776985) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BNTX as of ; valuations recomputed .