Knight-Swift Transportation Hol (KNX) Fair Value 2026

KNX · Trucking (No Local) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Knight-Swift Transportation Hol (KNX) trades at $74.35, approximately 36% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $115.91. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KNX
Price
$74.35
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +55.9% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($74.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$115.91 +55.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$33.00 -55.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$53.47 -28.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$92.21 +24.0%

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What Is Knight-Swift Transportation Hol (KNX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Knight-Swift Transportation Hol's intrinsic value is estimated at $54.21, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $74.35. With an average implied return of -27.1% across a split 2–7 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +151.6% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +55.9% (fair value: $115.91), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -95.7% ($3.22). The spread between these extremes — +151.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KNX?

13 of 13 models are currently active for KNX. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates KNX's intrinsic value at $115.91, implying +55.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KNX Rank in Trucking (No Local)?

Among 12 Trucking (No Local) stocks, KNX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

As a vehicle manufacturer, Knight-Swift Transportation Hol operates in a sector where units delivered is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating KNX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is KNX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KNX a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Knight-Swift Transportation Hol. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Knight-Swift Transportation Hol is rated at 7.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +151.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KNX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KNX's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Knight-Swift Transportation Hol Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking (No Local) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Trucking (No Local) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: SAIA · LSTR · JBHT · SNDR · MRTN

Frequently Asked Questions About Knight-Swift Transportation Hol

What is Knight-Swift Transportation Hol's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Knight-Swift Transportation Hol (KNX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $115.91. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KNX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $74.35, 5 of 13 active models suggest KNX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Knight-Swift Transportation Hol's business model in Trucking (No Local).

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for KNX?

Knight-Swift Transportation Hol's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KNX?

CirclFi analyzes KNX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KNX a value trap in 2026?

Knight-Swift Transportation Hol's Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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