Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Fair Value 2026

KNX · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) trades at $64.63, versus a $60.24 median fair value across its 12 active models — 6.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $105.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
KNX
Price
$64.63
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +96.1% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $60.24, within 6.8% of the current price of $64.63. Estimates range from $10.72 to $226.30. KNX scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. KNX’s -6.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Trucking sector median is -31.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KNX?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($64.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $105.52 +63.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.57 -79.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $59.54 -7.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $126.73 +96.1%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$2 / day

Billed monthly ($60/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is KNX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $10.72 to $226.30

CirclFi's 12 active models place Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) between $10.72 and $226.30 per share, a spread of 358% of the median. The median of that range — $60.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KNX, against a current price of $64.63.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$10.72median $60.24$226.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$10.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$226.30
Model agreement5 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KNX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KNX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. at its current price of $64.63. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $60.24 (-6.8% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +250.1% (fair value: $226.30), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -83.4% ($10.72). The spread between these extremes — +333.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KNX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for KNX. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KNX is $60.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $105.52 on its own, implying +63.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KNX Rank in Trucking?

Among 16 Trucking stocks, KNX ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

As a vehicle manufacturer, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. operates in a sector where units delivered is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating KNX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is KNX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KNX a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is rated at 7.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +333.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KNX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KNX's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8TFIITFI International Inc.QOC 7.6RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.QOC 6.7HTLDHeartland Express, Inc.QOC 6.5PAMTPAMT CORPQOC 5.8SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: MRTN · WERN · TFII · RXO · ARCB · CVLG · HTLD · PAMT · SNDR · ODFL · XPO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KNX?

7 companies across all industries closest to KNX’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

CNOCNO Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.3BNTXBioNTech SEQOC 7.3ORAOrmat Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.3BAPCredicorp Ltd.QOC 7.3PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 7.3ALRSAlerus Financial CorporationQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNO · BNTX · ORA · BAP · PSEC · ALRS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)'s intrinsic value at $60.24 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $10.72 to $226.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $105.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KNX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $64.63, 5 of 12 active models suggest KNX may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $60.24, within 6.8% of the current price of $64.63 — a consensus view that KNX is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for KNX?

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KNX?

CirclFi analyzes KNX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KNX?

Of the 12 models currently active on KNX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $226.30 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $10.72. CirclFi's published fair value for KNX is the median of that range, $60.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 358% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KNX a value trap in 2026?

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has a median fair value of $60.24 — within 6.8% of the current price of $64.63 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KNX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KNX valuation

Market data for KNX as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on KNX.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $60/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for KNX Unlock All 12 — $60/mo