Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) Fair Value 2026

MRTN · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) trades at $14.36, versus a $12.12 median fair value across its 12 active models — 15.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.08.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRTN
Price
$14.36
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +227.7% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $12.12, 15.6% below the current price of $14.36. Estimates range from $1.84 to $47.06. MRTN scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MRTN’s -15.6% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Marten Transport, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MRTN?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.08 -15.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.10 -57.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.16 -15.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $47.06 +227.7%
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What Is MRTN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $1.84 to $47.06

CirclFi's 12 active models place Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) between $1.84 and $47.06 per share, a spread of 373% of the median. The median of that range — $12.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MRTN, against a current price of $14.36.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$1.84median $12.12$47.06
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1.84
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$47.06
Model agreement5 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MRTN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MRTN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Marten Transport, Ltd. at its current price of $14.36. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $12.12 (-15.6% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $47.06 (+227.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $1.84 (-87.2%). This +314.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Marten Transport, Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MRTN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MRTN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MRTN is $12.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.08 on its own, implying -15.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRTN Rank in Trucking?

Among 17 Trucking stocks, MRTN ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

As a automotive sector, Marten Transport, Ltd. operates in a sector where EV mix percentage is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MRTN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MRTN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRTN a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Marten Transport, Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Marten Transport, Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +314.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRTN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRTN's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Marten Transport, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

TFIITFI International Inc.QOC 7.6KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.QOC 6.8ETSElite Express Holding Inc.QOC 6.2XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: TFII · KNX · ARCB · WERN · SNDR · RXO · CVLG · ETS · XPO · ODFL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MRTN?

7 companies across all industries closest to MRTN’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

OGCPEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3VGVenture Global, Inc.QOC 7.3ESBAEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3HLFHerbalife Ltd.QOC 7.3QUADQuad/Graphics, Inc.QOC 7.3AEYEAudioEye, Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OGCP · VG · ESBA · HLF · QUAD · AEYE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Marten Transport, Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Marten Transport, Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN)'s intrinsic value at $12.12 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.84 to $47.06. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.08 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRTN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.36, 5 of 12 active models suggest MRTN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $12.12, 15.6% below the current price of $14.36 — a consensus view that MRTN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Marten Transport, Ltd.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for MRTN?

Marten Transport, Ltd.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRTN?

CirclFi analyzes MRTN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MRTN?

Of the 12 models currently active on MRTN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $47.06 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1.84. CirclFi's published fair value for MRTN is the median of that range, $12.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 373% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MRTN a value trap in 2026?

Marten Transport, Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) has a median fair value of $12.12 — 15.6% below the current price of $14.36 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MRTN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MRTN valuation
  • Financial statements: Marten Transport, Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000799167) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MRTN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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