Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Fair Value 2026

LSTR · Integrated Freight & Logistics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (46/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) trades at $180.03, versus a $76.70 median fair value across its 11 active models — 57.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 46/100 (WARN). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $63.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
LSTR
Price
$180.03
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
46/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 46 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $76.70, 57.4% below the current price of $180.03. Estimates range from $35.74 to $216.52. LSTR scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 46/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LSTR’s -57.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector median is -39.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Landstar System, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LSTR?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($180.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.15 -64.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.23 -58.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $76.70 -57.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $109.49 -39.2%
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What Is LSTR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $35.74 to $216.52

CirclFi's 11 active models place Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) between $35.74 and $216.52 per share, a spread of 236% of the median. The median of that range — $76.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LSTR, against a current price of $180.03.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$35.74median $76.70$216.52
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$35.74
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$216.52
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LSTR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LSTR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Landstar System, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $76.70, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $180.03. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-57.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +20.3% (fair value: $216.52), while EROIC is the most conservative at -80.1% ($35.74). The spread between these extremes — +100.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LSTR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for LSTR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LSTR is $76.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $63.15 on its own, implying -64.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LSTR Rank in Integrated Freight & Logistics?

Among 37 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, LSTR ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Integrated Freight & Logistics space, Landstar System, Inc. competes in an environment where EV mix percentage often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is LSTR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LSTR a score of 46/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Landstar System, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Landstar System, Inc. is rated at 7.5/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LSTR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LSTR's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Landstar System, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks with 13-model coverage

PBIPitney Bowes Inc.QOC 7.5FDXFFedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.QOC 7.2GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.QOC 7.7CYRXCryoport, Inc.QOC 6.9FLXBingEx LimitedQOC 7.7FWRDForward Air CorporationQOC 6.7OZVNOZ Vision Inc.QOC 5.8CJMBCallan JMB Inc.QOC 4.6EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.QOC 8.5ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.8FDXFedEx CorporationQOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: PBI · FDXF · GXO · CYRX · FLX · FWRD · OZVN · CJMB · EXPD · ZTO · FDX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LSTR?

7 companies across all industries closest to LSTR’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

LHAILinkhome Holdings Inc.QOC 7.5MCMoelis & CompanyQOC 7.5ATHMAutohome Inc.QOC 7.5EDUCEducational Development CorporationQOC 7.5ABAllianceBernstein Holding L.P.QOC 7.5LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LHAI · MC · ATHM · EDUC · AB · LIFE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Landstar System, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Landstar System, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)'s intrinsic value at $76.70 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $35.74 to $216.52. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $63.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LSTR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $180.03, 1 of 11 active models suggest LSTR may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $76.70, 57.4% below the current price of $180.03 — a consensus view that LSTR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Landstar System, Inc.'s business model in Integrated Freight & Logistics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for LSTR?

Landstar System, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LSTR?

CirclFi analyzes LSTR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LSTR?

Of the 11 models currently active on LSTR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $216.52 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $35.74. CirclFi's published fair value for LSTR is the median of that range, $76.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 236% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LSTR a value trap in 2026?

Landstar System, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 46/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) has a median fair value of $76.70 — 57.4% below the current price of $180.03 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LSTR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LSTR valuation
  • Financial statements: Landstar System, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000853816) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LSTR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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