Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Fair Value 2026

LITE · Communication Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) trades at $956.14, versus a $146.68 median fair value across its 7 active models — 84.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LITE
Price
$956.14
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $146.68, 84.7% below the current price of $956.14. Estimates range from $106.96 to $1383.69. LITE scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LITE’s -84.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Communication Equipment sector median is -50.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lumentum Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LITE?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($956.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $113.56 -88.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $177.70 -81.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $146.68 -84.7%
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What Is LITE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $106.96 to $1383.69

CirclFi's 7 active models place Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) between $106.96 and $1383.69 per share, a spread of 870% of the median. The median of that range — $146.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LITE, against a current price of $956.14.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$106.96median $146.68$1383.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$106.96
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1383.69
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LITE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LITE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $146.68. Trading at its current price of $956.14, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -84.7%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $1,383.69 (+44.7%), versus FTNN at $106.96 (-88.8%). This +133.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LITE?

7 of 13 models are currently active for LITE. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LITE is $146.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LITE Rank in Communication Equipment?

Among 47 Communication Equipment stocks, LITE ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

The Communication Equipment sector introduces analytical considerations specific to media and communications company businesses. For Lumentum Holdings Inc., metrics like spectrum holdings value provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is LITE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LITE a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Lumentum Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lumentum Holdings Inc. scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +133.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LITE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LITE's 7 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lumentum Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Communication Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Communication Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

NOKNokia OyjQOC 7.5LTRXLantronix, Inc.QOC 7.1GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.QOC 7.6VIAVViavi Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyQOC 7.8FEIMFrequency Electronics, Inc.QOC 7.1FKWLFranklin Wireless Corp.QOC 6.7ASNSActelis Networks, Inc.QOC 5.4AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.QOC 8.5BKTIBK Technologies CorporationQOC 9.6UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: NOK · LTRX · GILT · VIAV · HPE · FEIM · FKWL · ASNS · AVNW · BKTI · UI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LITE?

7 companies across all industries closest to LITE’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

LDDDLongduoduo Company LimitedQOC 7.5FTEKFuel Tech, Inc.QOC 7.5LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.QOC 7.5ADTADT Inc.QOC 7.5EDUCEducational Development CorporationQOC 7.5FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LDDD · FTEK · LIFE · ADT · EDUC · FIS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lumentum Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s intrinsic value at $146.68 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $106.96 to $1383.69. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LITE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $956.14, 1 of 7 active models suggest LITE may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $146.68, 84.7% below the current price of $956.14 — a consensus view that LITE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s business model in Communication Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for LITE?

Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LITE?

CirclFi analyzes LITE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LITE?

Of the 7 models currently active on LITE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1383.69 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $106.96. CirclFi's published fair value for LITE is the median of that range, $146.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 870% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LITE a value trap in 2026?

Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) has a median fair value of $146.68 — 84.7% below the current price of $956.14 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LITE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LITE valuation
  • Financial statements: Lumentum Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001633978) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LITE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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