What Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $128.19. Trading at its current price of $768.15, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -83.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $846.75 (+10.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $7.47 (-99.0%). This +109.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About LITE?
13 of 13 models are currently active for LITE. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LITE's intrinsic value at $23.61, implying -96.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does LITE Rank in Communications Equipment, NEC?
Among 11 Communications Equipment, NEC stocks, LITE ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places LITE in the top tier.
The Communications Equipment, NEC sector introduces analytical considerations specific to media and communications company businesses. For Lumentum Holdings Inc., metrics like spectrum holdings value provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is LITE a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LITE a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Lumentum Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lumentum Holdings Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +109.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every LITE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across LITE's 13 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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