Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Fair Value 2026

HLIT · Communication Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) trades at $12.28, versus a $5.27 median fair value across its 11 active models — 57.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.13.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLIT
Price
$12.28
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $5.27, 57.1% below the current price of $12.28. Estimates range from $0.96 to $25.83. HLIT scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HLIT’s -57.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Communication Equipment sector median is -50.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Harmonic Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLIT?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.13 -50.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.49 -87.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.23 -57.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $4.96 -59.6%
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What Is HLIT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.96 to $25.83

CirclFi's 11 active models place Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) between $0.96 and $25.83 per share, a spread of 472% of the median. The median of that range — $5.27 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLIT, against a current price of $12.28.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.96median $5.27$25.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.96
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$25.83
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLIT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLIT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Harmonic Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $5.27, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $12.28. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-57.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $25.83 (+110.4%), versus ML-RIV at $0.96 (-92.2%). This +202.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HLIT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HLIT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLIT is $5.27 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.13 on its own, implying -50.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLIT Rank in Communication Equipment?

Among 47 Communication Equipment stocks, HLIT ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

As a media and communications company, Harmonic Inc. operates in a sector where content cost ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HLIT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HLIT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLIT a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Harmonic Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Harmonic Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +202.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLIT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLIT's 11 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Harmonic Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Communication Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Communication Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

AUDCAudioCodes Ltd.QOC 7.9HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyQOC 7.8FIEEFiEE, Inc.QOC 8.0GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.QOC 7.6ZBRAZebra Technologies CorporationQOC 8.1NOKNokia OyjQOC 7.5NTGRNETGEAR, Inc.QOC 6.9AMPGAmpliTech Group, Inc.QOC 6.3UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3BKTIBK Technologies CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: AUDC · HPE · FIEE · GILT · ZBRA · NOK · NTGR · AMPG · UI · BKTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLIT?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLIT’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

LEGLeggett & Platt, IncorporatedQOC 7.9SODISolitron Devices, Inc.QOC 7.9SFSTSouthern First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.9GLPIGaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.QOC 7.9LIVELive Ventures IncorporatedQOC 7.9KFRCKforce Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LEG · SODI · SFST · GLPI · LIVE · KFRC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Harmonic Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Harmonic Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)'s intrinsic value at $5.27 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.96 to $25.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.13 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLIT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.28, 1 of 11 active models suggest HLIT may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $5.27, 57.1% below the current price of $12.28 — a consensus view that HLIT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Harmonic Inc.'s business model in Communication Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for HLIT?

Harmonic Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLIT?

CirclFi analyzes HLIT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLIT?

Of the 11 models currently active on HLIT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $25.83 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.96. CirclFi's published fair value for HLIT is the median of that range, $5.27, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 472% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLIT a value trap in 2026?

Harmonic Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) has a median fair value of $5.27 — 57.1% below the current price of $12.28 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLIT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLIT valuation
  • Financial statements: Harmonic Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000851310) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLIT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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