Nokia Oyj (NOK) Fair Value 2026

NOK · Communication Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nokia Oyj (NOK) trades at $10.59, versus a $5.26 median fair value across its 13 active models — 50.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOK
Price
$10.59
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nokia Oyj (NOK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Nokia Oyj (NOK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $5.26, 50.4% below the current price of $10.59. Estimates range from $0.54 to $20.49. NOK scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NOK’s -50.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Communication Equipment sector median is -50.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nokia Oyj Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOK?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.97 -24.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.54 -94.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.26 -50.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $10.13 -4.3%
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What Is NOK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $0.54 to $20.49

CirclFi's 13 active models place Nokia Oyj (NOK) between $0.54 and $20.49 per share, a spread of 379% of the median. The median of that range — $5.26 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOK, against a current price of $10.59.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.54median $5.26$20.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$0.54
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$20.49
Model agreement1 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NOK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nokia Oyj (NOK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nokia Oyj's intrinsic value is estimated at $5.26. Trading at its current price of $10.59, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -50.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +93.5% (fair value: $20.49), while EPV is the most conservative at -94.9% ($0.54). The spread between these extremes — +188.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NOK?

13 of 13 models are currently active for NOK. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NOK is $5.26 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.97 on its own, implying -24.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOK Rank in Communication Equipment?

Among 47 Communication Equipment stocks, NOK ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Nokia Oyj's positioning within the Communication Equipment segment means that content cost ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including spectrum monetization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NOK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOK a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Nokia Oyj. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nokia Oyj scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOK's 13 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nokia Oyj Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Communication Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Communication Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.QOC 7.6LITELumentum Holdings Inc.QOC 7.5HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyQOC 7.8LTRXLantronix, Inc.QOC 7.1HLITHarmonic Inc.QOC 7.9VIAVViavi Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1INSGInseego Corp.QOC 6.8CMTLComtech Telecommunications Corp.QOC 5.7EXTRExtreme Networks, Inc.QOC 9.1BKTIBK Technologies CorporationQOC 9.6UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: GILT · LITE · HPE · LTRX · HLIT · VIAV · INSG · CMTL · EXTR · BKTI · UI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOK?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOK’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

JBSJBS N.V.QOC 7.5OLPOne Liberty Properties, Inc.QOC 7.5DANDana IncorporatedQOC 7.5RLJRLJ Lodging TrustQOC 7.5CALYCallaway Golf CompanyQOC 7.5SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JBS · OLP · DAN · RLJ · CALY · SUNB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nokia Oyj’s Valuation?

What is Nokia Oyj's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nokia Oyj (NOK)'s intrinsic value at $5.26 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.54 to $20.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.59, 1 of 13 active models suggest NOK may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $5.26, 50.4% below the current price of $10.59 — a consensus view that NOK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nokia Oyj's business model in Communication Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for NOK?

Nokia Oyj's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOK?

CirclFi analyzes NOK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOK?

Of the 13 models currently active on NOK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $20.49 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $0.54. CirclFi's published fair value for NOK is the median of that range, $5.26, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 379% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOK a value trap in 2026?

Nokia Oyj's Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Nokia Oyj (NOK) has a median fair value of $5.26 — 50.4% below the current price of $10.59 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOK valuation
  • Financial statements: Nokia Oyj 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000924613) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NOK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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