QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Fair Value 2026

QCOM · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) trades at $164.78, versus a $116.15 median fair value across its 10 active models — 29.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $137.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
QCOM
Price
$164.78
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +37.7% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $116.15, 29.5% below the current price of $164.78. Estimates range from $37.08 to $277.30. QCOM scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. QCOM’s -29.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give QCOM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($164.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $137.63 -16.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.08 -77.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $125.52 -23.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $226.96 +37.7%
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What Is QCOM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $37.08 to $277.30

CirclFi's 10 active models place QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) between $37.08 and $277.30 per share, a spread of 207% of the median. The median of that range — $116.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for QCOM, against a current price of $164.78.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$37.08median $116.15$277.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$37.08
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$277.30
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for QCOM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on QCOM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, QUALCOMM Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $116.15. Trading at $164.78, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -29.5%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +68.3% (fair value: $277.30), while EPV is the most conservative at -77.5% ($37.08). The spread between these extremes — +145.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About QCOM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for QCOM. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for QCOM is $116.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $137.63 on its own, implying -16.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does QCOM Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, QCOM ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places QCOM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

QUALCOMM Incorporated's positioning within the Semiconductors segment means that design win pipeline plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including data center buildout — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is QCOM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns QCOM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for QUALCOMM Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, QUALCOMM Incorporated earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +145.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every QCOM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across QCOM's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.QOC 9.0AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.QOC 8.7MUMicron Technology, Inc.QOC 9.1NVECNVE CorporationQOC 8.6TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedQOC 9.2UMCUnited Microelectronics CorporationQOC 8.5SITMSiTime CorporationQOC 7.4INDIindie Semiconductor, Inc.QOC 6.3TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd.QOC 2.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ADI · AMD · MU · NVEC · TSM · UMC · SITM · INDI · TSEM · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to QCOM?

6 companies across all industries closest to QCOM’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.9DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.QOC 8.9JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9LINLinde plcQOC 8.9FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: COP · DAL · JJSF · PR · LIN · FCX

Where Does QCOM Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

QCOM is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About QUALCOMM Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is QUALCOMM Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)'s intrinsic value at $116.15 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $37.08 to $277.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $137.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is QCOM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $164.78, 3 of 10 active models suggest QCOM may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $116.15, 29.5% below the current price of $164.78 — a consensus view that QCOM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits QUALCOMM Incorporated's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for QCOM?

QUALCOMM Incorporated's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on QCOM?

CirclFi analyzes QCOM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on QCOM?

Of the 10 models currently active on QCOM, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $277.30 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $37.08. CirclFi's published fair value for QCOM is the median of that range, $116.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 207% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is QCOM a value trap in 2026?

QUALCOMM Incorporated's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) has a median fair value of $116.15 — 29.5% below the current price of $164.78 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/QCOM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this QCOM valuation
  • Financial statements: QUALCOMM Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000804328) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for QCOM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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