Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Fair Value 2026

TSM · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) trades at $427.30, versus a $94.71 median fair value across its 8 active models — 77.8% below the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $82.72.

Key Facts

Ticker
TSM
Price
$427.30
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $94.71, 77.8% below the current price of $427.30. Estimates range from $54.48 to $958.38. TSM scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TSM’s -77.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TSM?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($427.30)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $82.72 -80.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $106.69 -75.0%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $246.61 -42.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $54.48 -87.2%
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What Is TSM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $54.48 to $958.38

CirclFi's 8 active models place Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) between $54.48 and $958.38 per share, a spread of 954% of the median. The median of that range — $94.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TSM, against a current price of $427.30.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$54.48median $94.71$958.38
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$54.48
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$958.38
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TSM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TSM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $94.71. Trading at its current price of $427.30, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -77.8%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +124.3% (fair value: $958.38), while EROIC is the most conservative at -87.2% ($54.48). The spread between these extremes — +211.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TSM?

8 of 13 models are currently active for TSM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TSM is $94.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $82.72 on its own, implying -80.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TSM Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, TSM ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places TSM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's positioning within the Semiconductors segment means that design win pipeline plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including data center buildout — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TSM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TSM a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited scores 9.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +211.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TSM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TSM's 8 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

RMBSRambus Inc.QOC 9.4MUMicron Technology, Inc.QOC 9.1NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V.QOC 9.5ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.QOC 9.0CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 9.5QCOMQUALCOMM IncorporatedQOC 8.9MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6LASRnLIGHT, Inc.QOC 6.7CBRSCerebras Systems Inc.QOC 3.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: RMBS · MU · NXPI · ADI · CRUS · QCOM · MTSI · LASR · CBRS · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TSM?

6 companies across all industries closest to TSM’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 9.1SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.QOC 9.2ITGartner, Inc.QOC 9.1RELXRELX PLCQOC 9.2TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BKE · NBIX · SPOT · IT · RELX · TGLS

Where Does TSM Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

TSM is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited’s Valuation?

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)'s intrinsic value at $94.71 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $54.48 to $958.38. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $82.72 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TSM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $427.30, 1 of 8 active models suggest TSM may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $94.71, 77.8% below the current price of $427.30 — a consensus view that TSM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for TSM?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TSM?

CirclFi analyzes TSM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TSM?

Of the 8 models currently active on TSM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $958.38 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $54.48. CirclFi's published fair value for TSM is the median of that range, $94.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 954% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TSM a value trap in 2026?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) has a median fair value of $94.71 — 77.8% below the current price of $427.30 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TSM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TSM valuation

Market data for TSM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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