What Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur's intrinsic value is estimated at $159.22. Trading at its current price of $421.60, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -62.2%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +0.4% (fair value: $423.22), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -95.8% ($17.58). The spread between these extremes — +96.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About TSM?
13 of 13 models are currently active for TSM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TSM's intrinsic value at $81.70, implying -80.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does TSM Rank in Semiconductors & Related Devices?
Among 86 Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks, TSM ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places TSM in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks →
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur's positioning within the Semiconductors & Related Devices segment means that design win pipeline plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including data center buildout — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is TSM a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TSM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur scores 10.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +96.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every TSM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across TSM's 13 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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