Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Fair Value 2026

AMD · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) trades at $534.39, approximately 3319% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $15.63. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMD
Price
$534.39
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($534.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $15.63 -97.1%
Earnings Power Value
Low Conviction
 $7.04 -98.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $32.57 -93.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $26.78 -95.0%

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What Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $90.50. Trading at its current price of $534.39, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -83.1%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $528.36 (-1.1%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $7.04 (-98.7%). This +97.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMD?

13 of 13 models are currently active for AMD. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates AMD's intrinsic value at $15.63, implying -97.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMD Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 9 Semiconductors stocks, AMD ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places AMD in the top tier.

The Semiconductors sector introduces analytical considerations specific to semiconductor industry businesses. For Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., metrics like book-to-bill ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AMD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMD a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.5/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMD's 13 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.QOC 9.3ALABAstera Labs, Inc.QOC 8.5AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor LQOC 7.4AIPArteris, Inc.QOC 7.0ALGMAllegro MicroSystems, Inc.QOC 6.9ALMUAeluma, Inc.QOC 5.7AMBQAmbiq Micro, Inc.QOC 5.6ARMArm Holdings plcQOC 3.0

Read investment analysis: ADI · ALAB · AOSL · AIP · ALGM

Frequently Asked Questions About Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

What is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $15.63. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $534.39, 0 of 13 active models suggest AMD may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for AMD?

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMD?

CirclFi analyzes AMD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMD a value trap in 2026?

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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