Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Fair Value 2026

PARR · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) trades at $73.55, approximately 561% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.12. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PARR
Price
$73.55
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($73.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$11.12 -84.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$8.27 -88.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$28.25 -61.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$28.30 -61.5%

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What Is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm's intrinsic value is estimated at $42.08, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $73.55. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-42.8% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $96.80 (+31.6%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $7.66 (-89.6%). This +121.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PARR?

13 of 13 models are currently active for PARR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PARR's intrinsic value at $11.12, implying -84.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PARR Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 84 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, PARR ranks #39 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

Within the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas space, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PARR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PARR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm is rated at 7.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PARR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PARR's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm

What is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $11.12. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $73.55, 3 of 13 active models suggest PARR may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for PARR?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PARR?

CirclFi analyzes PARR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PARR a value trap in 2026?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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