Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) Fair Value 2026

PARR · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) trades at $78.85, versus a $71.82 median fair value across its 13 active models — 8.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
PARR
Price
$78.85
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +61.6% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $71.82, within 8.9% of the current price of $78.85. Estimates range from $5.96 to $298.03. PARR scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PARR’s -8.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -25.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PARR?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.19 -85.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.96 -92.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $68.94 -12.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $127.40 +61.6%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is PARR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $5.96 to $298.03

CirclFi's 13 active models place Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) between $5.96 and $298.03 per share, a spread of 407% of the median. The median of that range — $71.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PARR, against a current price of $78.85.

Low · EPVHigh · ML-RIV
$5.96median $71.82$298.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.96
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$298.03
Model agreement6 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PARR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PARR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $71.82, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $78.85. While the median implied return is -8.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +370.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $298.03 (+278.0%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $5.96 (-92.4%). This +370.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PARR?

13 of 13 models are currently active for PARR. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PARR is $71.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.19 on its own, implying -85.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PARR Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, PARR ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places PARR in the top tier.

Within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PARR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PARR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is rated at 8.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +370.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PARR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PARR's 13 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationQOC 8.5DLXYDelixy Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.4APCARKO Petroleum Corp.QOC 4.5PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3SGUStar Group, L.P.QOC 8.2CVICVR Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5

Read investment analysis: UGP · MPC · DLXY · VLO · APC · PSX · SGU · CVI · CLNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PARR?

7 companies across all industries closest to PARR’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

UANCVR Partners, LPQOC 8.6AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.QOC 8.6YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6EZPWEZCORP, Inc.QOC 8.6ORIOld Republic International CorporationQOC 8.6ULSUL Solutions Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UAN · AXTA · YETI · EZPW · ORI · ULS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)'s intrinsic value at $71.82 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.96 to $298.03. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.85, 6 of 13 active models suggest PARR may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $71.82, within 8.9% of the current price of $78.85 — a consensus view that PARR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for PARR?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PARR?

CirclFi analyzes PARR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PARR?

Of the 13 models currently active on PARR, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $298.03 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.96. CirclFi's published fair value for PARR is the median of that range, $71.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 407% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PARR a value trap in 2026?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) has a median fair value of $71.82 — within 8.9% of the current price of $78.85 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PARR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PARR valuation
  • Financial statements: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000821483) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PARR as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on PARR.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

9 models hidden for PARR Unlock All 13 — $39/mo