Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Fair Value 2026

FANG · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) trades at $200.52, versus a $122.13 median fair value across its 11 active models — 39.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $165.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
FANG
Price
$200.52
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +34.5% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $122.13, 39.1% below the current price of $200.52. Estimates range from $35.95 to $269.60. FANG scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FANG’s -39.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Diamondback Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FANG?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($200.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $165.28 -17.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $122.86 -38.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $269.60 +34.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $131.42 -34.5%
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What Is FANG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $35.95 to $269.60

CirclFi's 11 active models place Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) between $35.95 and $269.60 per share, a spread of 191% of the median. The median of that range — $122.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FANG, against a current price of $200.52.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · First Chicago
$35.95median $122.13$269.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$35.95
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$269.60
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FANG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FANG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $122.13. Trading at its current price of $200.52, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -39.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $269.60 (+34.5%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $35.95 (-82.1%). This +116.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FANG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for FANG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FANG is $122.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $165.28 on its own, implying -17.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FANG Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, FANG ranks #31 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places FANG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FANG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FANG a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Diamondback Energy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Diamondback Energy, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +116.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FANG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FANG's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Diamondback Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

APAAPA CorporationQOC 8.1OVVOvintiv Inc.QOC 8.0KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LPQOC 8.1CNQCanadian Natural Resources LimitedQOC 8.0ARAntero Resources CorporationQOC 8.1NOGNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc.QOC 7.8KGEIKolibri Global Energy Inc.QOC 6.6CRCECircle Energy, Inc.QOC 5.1DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 8.8TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: APA · OVV · KRP · CNQ · AR · NOG · KGEI · CRCE · DVN · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FANG?

7 companies across all industries closest to FANG’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

GRANGrande Group LimitedQOC 8.0LNWOLight & Wonder, Inc.QOC 8.0PHINPHINIA Inc.QOC 8.0SSTKShutterstock, Inc.QOC 8.0SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.QOC 8.0RGENRepligen CorporationQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GRAN · LNWO · PHIN · SSTK · SWBI · RGEN · NVDA

Where Does FANG Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

FANG is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Diamondback Energy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG)'s intrinsic value at $122.13 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $35.95 to $269.60. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $165.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FANG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $200.52, 1 of 11 active models suggest FANG may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $122.13, 39.1% below the current price of $200.52 — a consensus view that FANG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for FANG?

Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FANG?

CirclFi analyzes FANG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FANG?

Of the 11 models currently active on FANG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $269.60 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $35.95. CirclFi's published fair value for FANG is the median of that range, $122.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 191% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FANG a value trap in 2026?

Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) has a median fair value of $122.13 — 39.1% below the current price of $200.52 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FANG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FANG valuation
  • Financial statements: Diamondback Energy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001539838) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FANG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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