APA Corporation (APA) Fair Value 2026

APA · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, APA Corporation (APA) trades at $42.54, versus a $46.20 median fair value across its 8 active models — 8.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
APA
Price
$42.54
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +108.5% upside with 1% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is APA Corporation (APA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, APA Corporation (APA) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $46.20, within 8.6% of the current price of $42.54. Estimates range from $15.59 to $122.00. APA scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. APA’s +8.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy APA Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give APA?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($42.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $55.57 +30.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $88.71 +108.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $36.83 -13.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $25.37 -40.4%
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What Is APA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $15.59 to $122.00

CirclFi's 8 active models place APA Corporation (APA) between $15.59 and $122.00 per share, a spread of 230% of the median. The median of that range — $46.20 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for APA, against a current price of $42.54.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$15.59median $46.20$122.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$15.59
Most bullish modelPWERM$122.00
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for APA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on APA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is APA Corporation (APA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, APA Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $46.20, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $42.54. While the median implied return is +8.6%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +250.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $122.00 (+186.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $15.59 (-63.4%). This +250.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about APA Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About APA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for APA. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for APA is $46.20 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APA Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, APA ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places APA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

APA Corporation's positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including basin-level economics — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is APA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APA a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for APA Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, APA Corporation scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +250.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APA's 8 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy APA Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LPQOC 8.1FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 8.0ARAntero Resources CorporationQOC 8.1OVVOvintiv Inc.QOC 8.0OXYOccidental Petroleum CorporationQOC 8.2CNQCanadian Natural Resources LimitedQOC 8.0BTEBaytex Energy Corp.QOC 6.7ROYLRoyale Energy, Inc.QOC 5.1SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 8.9TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: KRP · FANG · AR · OVV · OXY · CNQ · BTE · ROYL · SM · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to APA?

7 companies across all industries closest to APA’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.QOC 8.1BCHBanco de ChileQOC 8.1PGCPeapack-Gladstone Financial CorporationQOC 8.1MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.QOC 8.1DELLDell Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1AVNTAvient CorporationQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EDU · BCH · PGC · MSGE · DELL · AVNT · NVDA

Where Does APA Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

APA is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About APA Corporation’s Valuation?

What is APA Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts APA Corporation (APA)'s intrinsic value at $46.20 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $15.59 to $122.00. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $42.54, 4 of 8 active models suggest APA may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $46.20, within 8.6% of the current price of $42.54 — a consensus view that APA is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits APA Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for APA?

APA Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APA?

CirclFi analyzes APA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on APA?

Of the 8 models currently active on APA, PWERM is the most bullish at $122.00 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $15.59. CirclFi's published fair value for APA is the median of that range, $46.20, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 230% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is APA a value trap in 2026?

APA Corporation's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, APA Corporation (APA) has a median fair value of $46.20 — within 8.6% of the current price of $42.54 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/APA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this APA valuation
  • Financial statements: APA Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001841666) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for APA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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