Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) Fair Value 2026

AMPY · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) trades at $4.76, versus a $8.58 median fair value across its 9 active models — 80.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMPY
Price
$4.76
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +277.5% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $8.58, 80.3% above the current price of $4.76. Estimates range from $4.57 to $23.96. AMPY scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AMPY’s +80.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Amplify Energy Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMPY?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.97 +277.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.00 +173.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.70 +40.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.33 +33.0%
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What Is AMPY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $4.57 to $23.96

CirclFi's 9 active models place Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) between $4.57 and $23.96 per share, a spread of 226% of the median. The median of that range — $8.58 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMPY, against a current price of $4.76.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$4.57median $8.58$23.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$4.57
Most bullish modelPWERM$23.96
Model agreement8 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AMPY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMPY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Amplify Energy Corp. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $4.76. Based on our 13-model framework, Amplify Energy Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $8.58 — representing +80.3% implied upside — with 8 out of 9 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $23.96 (+403.4%), versus Dynamic NAV at $4.57 (-3.9%). This +407.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AMPY?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AMPY. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AMPY is $8.58 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.97 on its own, implying +277.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMPY Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, AMPY ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places AMPY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, Amplify Energy Corp. competes in an environment where breakeven oil price often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AMPY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMPY a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Amplify Energy Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Amplify Energy Corp. is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +407.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMPY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMPY's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Amplify Energy Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

MXCMexco Energy CorporationQOC 8.4RRCRange Resources CorporationQOC 8.4CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4MTDRMatador Resources CompanyQOC 8.4WDSWoodside Energy Group LtdQOC 8.5CHRDChord Energy CorporationQOC 8.3VTSVitesse Energy, Inc.QOC 7.5PEDPEDEVCO Corp.QOC 5.7PTCOPetroGas CompanyQOC 3.5TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MXC · RRC · CKX · MTDR · WDS · CHRD · VTS · PED · PTCO · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMPY?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMPY’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc.QOC 8.4BLBlackLine, Inc.QOC 8.4FRSTPrimis Financial Corp.QOC 8.4GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQOC 8.4EQBKEquity Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.4HNNAHennessy Advisors, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WMB · BL · FRST · GD · EQBK · HNNA · NVDA

Where Does AMPY Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

AMPY is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Amplify Energy Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Amplify Energy Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)'s intrinsic value at $8.58 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.57 to $23.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMPY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.76, 8 of 9 active models suggest AMPY may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $8.58, 80.3% above the current price of $4.76 — a consensus view that AMPY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Amplify Energy Corp.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for AMPY?

Amplify Energy Corp.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMPY?

CirclFi analyzes AMPY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMPY?

Of the 9 models currently active on AMPY, PWERM is the most bullish at $23.96 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $4.57. CirclFi's published fair value for AMPY is the median of that range, $8.58, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 226% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMPY a value trap in 2026?

Amplify Energy Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) has a median fair value of $8.58 — 80.3% above the current price of $4.76 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMPY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMPY valuation
  • Financial statements: Amplify Energy Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001533924) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMPY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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