Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) Fair Value 2026

MXC · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) trades at $9.73, versus a $9.59 median fair value across its 12 active models — 1.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $21.39.

Key Facts

Ticker
MXC
Price
$9.73
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +159.5% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $9.59, within 1.4% of the current price of $9.73. Estimates range from $5.81 to $25.25. MXC scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MXC’s -1.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mexco Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MXC?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.39 +119.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.68 -21.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.86 +21.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $25.25 +159.5%
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What Is MXC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $5.81 to $25.25

CirclFi's 12 active models place Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) between $5.81 and $25.25 per share, a spread of 203% of the median. The median of that range — $9.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MXC, against a current price of $9.73.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$5.81median $9.59$25.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$5.81
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$25.25
Model agreement5 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MXC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MXC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mexco Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $9.59, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $9.73. With a median implied return of -1.4% across a split 5–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +199.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +159.5% (fair value: $25.25), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -40.3% ($5.81). The spread between these extremes — +199.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MXC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MXC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MXC is $9.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $21.39 on its own, implying +119.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MXC Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, MXC ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places MXC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

The Oil & Gas E&P sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Mexco Energy Corporation, metrics like debt-to-EBITDAX provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MXC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MXC a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Mexco Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Mexco Energy Corporation earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +199.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MXC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MXC's 12 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mexco Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.QOC 8.4WDSWoodside Energy Group LtdQOC 8.5RRCRange Resources CorporationQOC 8.4DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.QOC 8.5MTDRMatador Resources CompanyQOC 8.4MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5INDOIndonesia Energy Corporation LimitedQOC 5.8SJTSan Juan Basin Royalty TrustQOC 3.6TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CKX · AMPY · WDS · RRC · DMLP · MTDR · MUR · INDO · SJT · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MXC?

7 companies across all industries closest to MXC’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

PSNParsons CorporationQOC 8.4GCBCGreene County Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4CLSTCatalyst Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4FRHCFreedom Holdings Corp.QOC 8.4AMTBAmerant Bancorp Inc.QOC 8.4DKSDICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PSN · GCBC · CLST · FRHC · AMTB · DKS · NVDA

Where Does MXC Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

MXC is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mexco Energy Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Mexco Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC)'s intrinsic value at $9.59 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.81 to $25.25. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $21.39 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MXC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.73, 5 of 12 active models suggest MXC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $9.59, within 1.4% of the current price of $9.73 — a consensus view that MXC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mexco Energy Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for MXC?

Mexco Energy Corporation's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MXC?

CirclFi analyzes MXC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MXC?

Of the 12 models currently active on MXC, First Chicago is the most bullish at $25.25 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $5.81. CirclFi's published fair value for MXC is the median of that range, $9.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 203% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MXC a value trap in 2026?

Mexco Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) has a median fair value of $9.59 — within 1.4% of the current price of $9.73 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MXC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MXC valuation
  • Financial statements: Mexco Energy Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000066418) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MXC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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