Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Fair Value 2026

MTDR · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Matador Resources Company (MTDR) trades at $56.39, versus a $64.00 median fair value across its 12 active models — 13.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $62.06.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTDR
Price
$56.39
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +191.9% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Matador Resources Company (MTDR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $64.00, 13.5% above the current price of $56.39. Estimates range from $17.34 to $164.60. MTDR scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MTDR’s +13.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Matador Resources Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MTDR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($56.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $62.06 +10.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $65.95 +16.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $164.60 +191.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.28 -3.7%
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What Is MTDR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $17.34 to $164.60

CirclFi's 12 active models place Matador Resources Company (MTDR) between $17.34 and $164.60 per share, a spread of 230% of the median. The median of that range — $64.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MTDR, against a current price of $56.39.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$17.34median $64.00$164.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$17.34
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$164.60
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MTDR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MTDR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Matador Resources Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $64.00, suggesting a +13.5% median upside from the current price of $56.39. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $164.60 (+191.9%), versus Markov DDM at $17.34 (-69.2%). This +261.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MTDR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MTDR. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MTDR is $64.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $62.06 on its own, implying +10.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTDR Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, MTDR ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places MTDR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, Matador Resources Company competes in an environment where reserve life index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MTDR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTDR a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Matador Resources Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Matador Resources Company is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +261.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTDR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTDR's 12 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Matador Resources Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

RRCRange Resources CorporationQOC 8.4CHRDChord Energy CorporationQOC 8.3AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.QOC 8.4PNRGPrimeEnergy Resources CorporationQOC 8.3MXCMexco Energy CorporationQOC 8.4CRCCalifornia Resources CorporationQOC 8.3CRKComstock Resources, Inc.QOC 7.4TPETTrio Petroleum Corp.QOC 5.6REOSReoStar Energy Corp.QOC 3.1TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: RRC · CHRD · AMPY · PNRG · MXC · CRC · CRK · TPET · REOS · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MTDR?

7 companies across all industries closest to MTDR’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

CFRCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.QOC 8.4AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4GRVYGravity Co., Ltd.QOC 8.4PBFSPioneer Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.QOC 8.4WMTWalmart Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CFR · AKAM · GRVY · PBFS · CHD · WMT · NVDA

Where Does MTDR Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

MTDR is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Matador Resources Company’s Valuation?

What is Matador Resources Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Matador Resources Company (MTDR)'s intrinsic value at $64.00 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $17.34 to $164.60. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $62.06 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTDR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $56.39, 7 of 12 active models suggest MTDR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $64.00, 13.5% above the current price of $56.39 — a consensus view that MTDR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Matador Resources Company's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for MTDR?

Matador Resources Company's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTDR?

CirclFi analyzes MTDR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MTDR?

Of the 12 models currently active on MTDR, First Chicago is the most bullish at $164.60 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $17.34. CirclFi's published fair value for MTDR is the median of that range, $64.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 230% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MTDR a value trap in 2026?

Matador Resources Company's Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Matador Resources Company (MTDR) has a median fair value of $64.00 — 13.5% above the current price of $56.39 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MTDR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MTDR valuation
  • Financial statements: Matador Resources Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001520006) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MTDR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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