PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Fair Value 2026

PED · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) trades at $13.28, versus a $13.00 median fair value across its 8 active models — 2.1% below the current price. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $24.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
PED
Price
$13.28
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +85.4% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $13.00, within 2.1% of the current price of $13.28. Estimates range from $1.88 to $24.63. PED scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PED’s -2.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy PEDEVCO Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PED?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.63 +85.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.29 -7.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $13.80 +3.9%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $4.14 -68.8%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including Regime Cross-Sectional, Sentiment SOTP, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 8 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is PED's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $1.88 to $24.63

CirclFi's 8 active models place PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) between $1.88 and $24.63 per share, a spread of 175% of the median. The median of that range — $13.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PED, against a current price of $13.28.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Bayesian DCF
$1.88median $13.00$24.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$1.88
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$24.63
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PED. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PED, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PEDEVCO Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.00, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $13.28. With a median implied return of -2.1% across a split 2–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +171.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +85.4% (fair value: $24.63), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -85.9% ($1.88). The spread between these extremes — +171.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About PED?

8 of 13 models are currently active for PED. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PED is $13.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $24.63 on its own, implying +85.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PED Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, PED ranks #63 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, PEDEVCO Corp. competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PED a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PED a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for PEDEVCO Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, PEDEVCO Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +171.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PED valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PED's 8 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy PEDEVCO Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

INDOIndonesia Energy Corporation LimitedQOC 5.8BSINBig Sky Industrial Inc.QOC 5.6EPEmpire Petroleum CorporationQOC 5.9TPETTrio Petroleum Corp.QOC 5.6BRNBarnwell Industries, Inc.QOC 5.9ZNOGZion Oil & Gas, Inc.QOC 5.5PTCOPetroGas CompanyQOC 3.5AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.QOC 8.4VTSVitesse Energy, Inc.QOC 7.5TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: INDO · BSIN · EP · TPET · BRN · ZNOG · PTCO · AMPY · VTS · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PED?

7 companies across all industries closest to PED’s Quality of Company score of 5.7/10.

OVIDOvid Therapeutics Inc.QOC 5.7MGNCMag Magna Corp.QOC 5.7USDWUSDWQOC 5.7ACDCProFrac Holding Corp.QOC 5.7IHTInnSuites Hospitality TrustQOC 5.7CDIXCardiff Lexington CorporationQOC 5.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OVID · MGNC · USDW · ACDC · IHT · CDIX · NVDA

Where Does PED Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

PED is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About PEDEVCO Corp.’s Valuation?

What is PEDEVCO Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts PEDEVCO Corp. (PED)'s intrinsic value at $13.00 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.88 to $24.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $24.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PED overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.28, 4 of 8 active models suggest PED may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $13.00, within 2.1% of the current price of $13.28 — a consensus view that PED is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits PEDEVCO Corp.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for PED?

PEDEVCO Corp.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PED?

CirclFi analyzes PED with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PED?

Of the 8 models currently active on PED, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $24.63 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $1.88. CirclFi's published fair value for PED is the median of that range, $13.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 175% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PED a value trap in 2026?

PEDEVCO Corp.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) has a median fair value of $13.00 — within 2.1% of the current price of $13.28 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PED/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PED valuation
  • Financial statements: PEDEVCO Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001141197) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PED as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 8 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on PED.

Unlock All 8 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for PED Unlock All 8 — $39/mo