Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) Fair Value 2026

EP · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (55/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) trades at $3.23. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 55/100 (WARN). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EP
Price
$3.23
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
55/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 55 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EP?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.14 -64.7%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Empire Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $1.14, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $3.23. With 1 out of 1 models flagging downside (-64.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About EP?

1 of 13 models are currently active for EP. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EP Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, EP ranks #61 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

As a energy producer, Empire Petroleum Corporation operates in a sector where debt-to-EBITDAX is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating EP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is EP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EP a score of 55/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Empire Petroleum Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Empire Petroleum Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 5.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EP's 1 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Empire Petroleum Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

BRNBarnwell Industries, Inc.QOC 5.9INDOIndonesia Energy Corporation LimitedQOC 5.8SPNDSpindletop Oil & Gas Co.QOC 6.0PEDPEDEVCO Corp.QOC 5.7TXOTXO Partners, L.P.QOC 6.1BSINBig Sky Industrial Inc.QOC 5.6GRVEGroove Botanicals, Inc.QOC 3.7CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4CRGYCrescent Energy CompanyQOC 7.7TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BRN · INDO · SPND · PED · TXO · BSIN · GRVE · CKX · CRGY · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EP?

7 companies across all industries closest to EP’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

BOLTBolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9AMSAmerican Shared Hospital ServicesQOC 5.9BLGOBioLargo, Inc.QOC 5.9CGTLCreative Global Technology Holdings LimitedQOC 5.9YJYunji Inc.QOC 5.9MIRMMirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BOLT · AMS · BLGO · CGTL · YJ · MIRM · NVDA

Where Does EP Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

EP is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Empire Petroleum Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Empire Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP). The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.23, 0 of 1 active models suggest EP may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Empire Petroleum Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for EP?

Empire Petroleum Corporation's QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EP?

CirclFi analyzes EP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is EP a value trap in 2026?

Empire Petroleum Corporation's Value Trap score is 55/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) a Quality of Company score of 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EP valuation
  • Financial statements: Empire Petroleum Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000887396) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EP as of ; valuations recomputed .