Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) Fair Value 2026

TPET · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) trades at $0.31, approximately 18% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.38. QOC: 5.1/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TPET
Price
$0.31
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +48.9% upside with 16% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $0.45, 45.5% above the current price of $0.31. Estimates range from $0.07 to $0.72. TPET scores 5.1/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Trio Petroleum Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.38 +22.0%
Earnings Power Value
Low Conviction
 $0.46 +48.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $0.42 +36.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $0.15 -50.9%

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What Is Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Trio Petroleum Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.43, suggesting a +38.1% average upside from the current price of $0.31. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $0.72 (+132.1%), versus ML-RIV at $0.07 (-77.9%). This +210.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TPET?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TPET. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TPET's intrinsic value at $0.38, implying +22.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TPET Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, TPET ranks #61 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

As a energy producer, Trio Petroleum Corp. operates in a sector where finding and development costs (F&D) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TPET should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TPET a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for TPET. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Trio Petroleum Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Trio Petroleum Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.1/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +210.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TPET valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TPET's 11 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Trio Petroleum Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 10.0MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 10.0HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.7PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 9.5FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 9.5EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 9.4DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 9.4SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Trio Petroleum Corp.

What is Trio Petroleum Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.38. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TPET overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.31, 8 of 11 active models suggest TPET may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $0.45, 45.5% above the current price of $0.31 — a consensus view that TPET is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Trio Petroleum Corp.'s business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for TPET?

Trio Petroleum Corp.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TPET?

CirclFi analyzes TPET with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TPET a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for TPET at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) has a median fair value of $0.45 — 45.5% above the current price of $0.31 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TPET/ · Methodology

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