AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA) Fair Value 2026

ANNA · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA) trades at $2.76, versus a $1.50 median fair value across its 10 active models — 45.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.98.

Key Facts

Ticker
ANNA
Price
$2.76
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +80.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $1.50, 45.6% below the current price of $2.76. Estimates range from $0.42 to $4.98. ANNA scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ANNA’s -45.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AleAnna, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ANNA?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.98 +80.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.86 -32.7%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $2.68 -3.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.75 -36.4%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including EROIC Spread, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ANNA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.42 to $4.98

CirclFi's 10 active models place AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA) between $0.42 and $4.98 per share, a spread of 304% of the median. The median of that range — $1.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ANNA, against a current price of $2.76.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Bayesian DCF
$0.42median $1.50$4.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.42
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$4.98
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ANNA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ANNA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AleAnna, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.50. Trading at $2.76, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -45.6%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +80.5% (fair value: $4.98), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -84.8% ($0.42). The spread between these extremes — +165.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ANNA?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ANNA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ANNA is $1.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.98 on its own, implying +80.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ANNA Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, ANNA ranks #41 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

AleAnna, Inc.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that breakeven oil price plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ANNA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ANNA a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for AleAnna, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AleAnna, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +165.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ANNA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ANNA's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AleAnna, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

VTSVitesse Energy, Inc.QOC 7.5CRKComstock Resources, Inc.QOC 7.4MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4CRGYCrescent Energy CompanyQOC 7.7EPMEvolution Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.1PEDPEDEVCO Corp.QOC 5.7FTWPresidio Production CompanyQOC 3.4AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.QOC 8.4TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: VTS · CRK · MUR · BATL · CRGY · EPM · PED · FTW · AMPY · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ANNA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ANNA’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

LPXLouisiana-Pacific CorporationQOC 7.5TLIHTen-League International Holdings LimitedQOC 7.5STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc.QOC 7.5MBINMerchants BancorpQOC 7.5CPSSConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc.QOC 7.5JRSHJerash Holdings (US), Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LPX · TLIH · STAG · MBIN · CPSS · JRSH · NVDA

Where Does ANNA Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

ANNA is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AleAnna, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AleAnna, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA)'s intrinsic value at $1.50 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.42 to $4.98. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.98 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ANNA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.76, 2 of 10 active models suggest ANNA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $1.50, 45.6% below the current price of $2.76 — a consensus view that ANNA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AleAnna, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for ANNA?

AleAnna, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ANNA?

CirclFi analyzes ANNA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ANNA?

Of the 10 models currently active on ANNA, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $4.98 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.42. CirclFi's published fair value for ANNA is the median of that range, $1.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 304% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ANNA a value trap in 2026?

AleAnna, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA) has a median fair value of $1.50 — 45.6% below the current price of $2.76 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ANNA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ANNA valuation
  • Financial statements: AleAnna, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001845123) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ANNA as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ANNA.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for ANNA Unlock All 10 — $39/mo