CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) Fair Value 2026

CTO · REIT - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (48/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) trades at $21.57, versus a $18.55 median fair value across its 8 active models — 14.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 48/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CTO
Price
$21.57
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
48/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +27.0% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 48 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $18.55, 14.0% below the current price of $21.57. Estimates range from $0.74 to $27.40. CTO scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 48/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CTO’s -14.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Diversified sector median is -20.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CTO?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $16.92 -21.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.40 +27.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.26 -43.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.74 -96.6%
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What Is CTO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.74 to $27.40

CirclFi's 8 active models place CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) between $0.74 and $27.40 per share, a spread of 144% of the median. The median of that range — $18.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CTO, against a current price of $21.57.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Markov DDM
$0.74median $18.55$27.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.74
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$27.40
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CTO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CTO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $18.55. Trading at $21.57, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -14.0%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $27.40 (+27.0%), versus Dynamic NAV at $0.74 (-96.6%). This +123.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CTO?

8 of 13 models are currently active for CTO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CTO is $18.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CTO Rank in REIT - Diversified?

Among 18 REIT - Diversified stocks, CTO ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Diversified segment means that funds from operations (FFO) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including development pipeline delivery — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CTO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CTO a score of 48/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for CTO Realty Growth, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CTO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CTO's 8 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

GOODGladstone Commercial CorporationQOC 7.4WPCW. P. Carey Inc.QOC 7.4ESRTEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.5AHRTAH REALTY TRUST INCQOC 7.2OLPOne Liberty Properties, Inc.QOC 7.5CMRFCIM Group, Inc.QOC 7.1SAFESafehold Inc.QOC 7.1MKZRMacKenzie Realty Capital, Inc.QOC 5.1AATAmerican Assets Trust, Inc.QOC 7.7VICIVICI Properties Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: GOOD · WPC · ESRT · AHRT · OLP · CMRF · SAFE · MKZR · AAT · VICI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CTO?

7 companies across all industries closest to CTO’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

PVHPVH Corp.QOC 7.4SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4ZGZillow Group, Inc.QOC 7.4CRKComstock Resources, Inc.QOC 7.4NROMNoble Roman's, Inc.QOC 7.4SPRSSurge Components, Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PVH · SLGN · ZG · CRK · NROM · SPRS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About CTO Realty Growth, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)'s intrinsic value at $18.55 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.74 to $27.40. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CTO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.57, 2 of 8 active models suggest CTO may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $18.55, 14.0% below the current price of $21.57 — a consensus view that CTO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for CTO?

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CTO?

CirclFi analyzes CTO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CTO?

Of the 8 models currently active on CTO, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $27.40 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.74. CirclFi's published fair value for CTO is the median of that range, $18.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 144% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CTO a value trap in 2026?

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 48/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) has a median fair value of $18.55 — 14.0% below the current price of $21.57 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CTO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CTO valuation
  • Financial statements: CTO Realty Growth, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000023795) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CTO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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