Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) Fair Value 2026

ESRT · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) trades at $5.55, approximately 94% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.86. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESRT
Price
$5.55
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +18.8% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $2.86 -48.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $0.16 -97.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $3.95 -28.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $6.60 +18.8%

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What Is Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $4.53. Trading at $5.56, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -18.4%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $16.58 (+198.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.06 (-98.9%). This +297.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ESRT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ESRT. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ESRT's intrinsic value at $2.86, implying -48.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESRT Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 183 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, ESRT ranks #108 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s positioning within the Real Estate Investment Trusts segment means that debt-to-EBITDA plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including rental rate escalation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ESRT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ESRT a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +297.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESRT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESRT's 13 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

What is Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.86. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESRT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.55, 4 of 13 active models suggest ESRT may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for ESRT?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESRT?

CirclFi analyzes ESRT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ESRT a value trap in 2026?

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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