NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) Fair Value 2026

NXDT · REIT - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) trades at $5.40, versus a $5.01 median fair value across its 7 active models — 7.2% below the current price. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NXDT
Price
$5.40
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +35.3% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $5.01, within 7.2% of the current price of $5.40. Estimates range from $1.04 to $18.61. NXDT scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NXDT’s -7.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Diversified sector median is -20.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NXDT?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.04 -80.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.01 -7.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.30 +35.3%
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What Is NXDT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $1.04 to $18.61

CirclFi's 7 active models place NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) between $1.04 and $18.61 per share, a spread of 350% of the median. The median of that range — $5.01 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NXDT, against a current price of $5.40.

Low · EPVHigh · PWERM
$1.04median $5.01$18.61
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.04
Most bullish modelPWERM$18.61
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NXDT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NXDT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.01. Trading at $5.40, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -7.2%), as 4 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $18.61 (+244.7%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $1.04 (-80.7%). This +325.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NXDT?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NXDT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NXDT is $5.01 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NXDT Rank in REIT - Diversified?

Among 18 REIT - Diversified stocks, NXDT ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The REIT - Diversified sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust, metrics like weighted average lease term (WALT) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NXDT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NXDT a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust scores 5.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +325.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NXDT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NXDT's 7 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

GNLGlobal Net Lease, Inc.QOC 6.3JBGSJBG SMITH PropertiesQOC 5.5SQFTPresidio Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.4MKZRMacKenzie Realty Capital, Inc.QOC 5.1SAFESafehold Inc.QOC 7.1FVRFrontView REIT, Inc.QOC 5.0GIPRGeneration Income Properties, Inc.QOC 4.6ESRTEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.5AHRTAH REALTY TRUST INCQOC 7.2VICIVICI Properties Inc.QOC 8.6AATAmerican Assets Trust, Inc.QOC 7.7

Read investment analysis: GNL · JBGS · SQFT · MKZR · SAFE · FVR · GIPR · ESRT · AHRT · VICI · AAT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NXDT?

7 companies across all industries closest to NXDT’s Quality of Company score of 5.6/10.

MMCPMag Mile Capital, Inc.QOC 5.6VNOVVNOVQOC 5.6TBBBBBB Foods Inc.QOC 5.6QUCYQuantum Cyber N.V.QOC 5.6USEAUnited Maritime CorporationQOC 5.6SHFHScientist Home Future Health LimitedQOC 5.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MMCP · VNOV · TBBB · QUCY · USEA · SHFH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust’s Valuation?

What is NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT)'s intrinsic value at $5.01 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.04 to $18.61. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NXDT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.40, 2 of 7 active models suggest NXDT may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $5.01, within 7.2% of the current price of $5.40 — a consensus view that NXDT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust's business model in REIT - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for NXDT?

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust's QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NXDT?

CirclFi analyzes NXDT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NXDT?

Of the 7 models currently active on NXDT, PWERM is the most bullish at $18.61 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.04. CirclFi's published fair value for NXDT is the median of that range, $5.01, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 350% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NXDT a value trap in 2026?

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust's Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) has a median fair value of $5.01 — within 7.2% of the current price of $5.40 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NXDT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NXDT valuation

Market data for NXDT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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