Moelis & Company (MC) Fair Value 2026

MC · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Moelis & Company (MC) trades at $68.63, versus a $15.97 median fair value across its 3 active models — 76.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MC
Price
$68.63
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +17.0% upside with 20% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Moelis & Company (MC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Moelis & Company (MC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $15.97, 76.7% below the current price of $68.63. Estimates range from $15.33 to $80.32. MC scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MC’s -76.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -34.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Moelis & Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MC?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($68.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $15.33 -77.7%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $15.97 -76.7%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $80.32 +17.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is MC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $15.33 to $80.32

CirclFi's 3 active models place Moelis & Company (MC) between $15.33 and $80.32 per share, a spread of 407% of the median. The median of that range — $15.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MC, against a current price of $68.63.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$15.33median $15.97$80.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$15.33
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$80.32
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Moelis & Company (MC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Moelis & Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $15.97. Trading at $68.63, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -76.7%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $80.32 (+17.0%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $15.33 (-77.7%). This +94.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Moelis & Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MC?

3 of 13 models are currently active for MC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MC is $15.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MC Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, MC ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

The Capital Markets sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Moelis & Company, metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MC a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Moelis & Company. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Moelis & Company scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MC's 3 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Moelis & Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

PWPPerella Weinberg PartnersQOC 7.6LAZLazard, Inc.QOC 7.4BMHLBluemount Holdings LimitedQOC 7.6MRXMarex Group LimitedQOC 7.4LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.QOC 7.4BGDEBig Digital Energy, Inc.QOC 5.8IPSTIP Strategy Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.7SOSSOS LimitedQOC 1.4FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: PWP · LAZ · BMHL · MRX · LPLA · GS · BGDE · IPST · SOS · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MC?

7 companies across all industries closest to MC’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

LSTRLandstar System, Inc.QOC 7.5EDUCEducational Development CorporationQOC 7.5LHAILinkhome Holdings Inc.QOC 7.5LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.QOC 7.5EVIEVI Industries, Inc.QOC 7.5LDDDLongduoduo Company LimitedQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LSTR · EDUC · LHAI · LIFE · EVI · LDDD · NVDA

Where Does MC Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

MC is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Moelis & Company’s Valuation?

What is Moelis & Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Moelis & Company (MC)'s intrinsic value at $15.97 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.33 to $80.32. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $68.63, 1 of 3 active models suggest MC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $15.97, 76.7% below the current price of $68.63 — a consensus view that MC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Moelis & Company's business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for MC?

Moelis & Company's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MC?

CirclFi analyzes MC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MC?

Of the 3 models currently active on MC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $80.32 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $15.33. CirclFi's published fair value for MC is the median of that range, $15.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 407% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MC a value trap in 2026?

Moelis & Company's Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Moelis & Company (MC) has a median fair value of $15.97 — 76.7% below the current price of $68.63 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MC valuation
  • Financial statements: Moelis & Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001596967) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MC as of ; valuations recomputed .