Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) Fair Value 2026

ZG · Services-Business Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) trades at $33.74, approximately 41% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $57.24. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ZG
Price
$33.74
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +69.6% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $15.92, 52.8% below the current price of $33.74. Estimates range from $2.01 to $57.24. ZG scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Zillow Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$57.24 +69.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$18.86 -44.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$15.92 -52.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$16.26 -51.8%

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What Is Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Zillow Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $17.47, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $33.74. With 12 out of 13 models flagging downside (-48.2% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $57.24 (+69.6%), versus ML-RIV at $2.01 (-94.0%). This +163.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ZG?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ZG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ZG's intrinsic value at $57.24, implying +69.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ZG Rank in Services-Business Services, NEC?

Among 94 Services-Business Services, NEC stocks, ZG ranks #58 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks →

Zillow Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ZG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ZG a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Zillow Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Zillow Group, Inc. is rated at 6.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ZG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ZG's 13 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Zillow Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Business Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CART · EXLS · FICO · PDD · TCOM

See all Services-Business Services, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Zillow Group, Inc.

What is Zillow Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $57.24. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ZG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.74, 1 of 13 active models suggest ZG may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $15.92, 52.8% below the current price of $33.74 — a consensus view that ZG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Zillow Group, Inc.'s business model in Services-Business Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for ZG?

Zillow Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ZG?

CirclFi analyzes ZG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ZG a value trap in 2026?

Zillow Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) has a median fair value of $15.92 — 52.8% below the current price of $33.74 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ZG/ · Methodology

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