MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) Fair Value 2026

MAX · Services-Business Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) trades at $14.09, approximately 132% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.06. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MAX
Price
$14.09
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$6.06 -57.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$2.21 -84.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$7.13 -49.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$12.05 -14.4%

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What Is MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MediaAlpha, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.14. Trading at its current price of $14.09, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -49.4%. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $12.26 (-13.0%), versus ML-RIV at $2.06 (-85.4%). This +72.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MAX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MAX. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates MAX's intrinsic value at $6.06, implying -57.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MAX Rank in Services-Business Services, NEC?

Among 97 Services-Business Services, NEC stocks, MAX ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places MAX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks →

MediaAlpha, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MAX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MAX a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for MediaAlpha, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, MediaAlpha, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +72.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MAX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MAX's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MediaAlpha, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Business Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CART · EXLS · FICO · PDD · TCOM

See all Services-Business Services, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About MediaAlpha, Inc.

What is MediaAlpha, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.06. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MAX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.09, 0 of 11 active models suggest MAX may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MediaAlpha, Inc.'s business model in Services-Business Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for MAX?

MediaAlpha, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MAX?

CirclFi analyzes MAX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MAX a value trap in 2026?

MediaAlpha, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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