Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) Fair Value 2026

Z · Internet Content & Information ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) trades at $34.96, versus a $11.71 median fair value across its 8 active models — 66.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.75.

Key Facts

Ticker
Z
Price
$34.96
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $11.71, 66.5% below the current price of $34.96. Estimates range from $3.75 to $40.63. Z scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. Z’s -66.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Internet Content & Information sector median is -9.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Zillow Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give Z?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($34.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.75 -89.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.77 -66.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $16.59 -52.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.25 -73.5%
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What Is Z's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.75 to $40.63

CirclFi's 8 active models place Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) between $3.75 and $40.63 per share, a spread of 315% of the median. The median of that range — $11.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for Z, against a current price of $34.96.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$3.75median $11.71$40.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$3.75
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$40.63
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for Z. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on Z, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Zillow Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.71. Trading at its current price of $34.96, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -66.5%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $40.63 (+16.2%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $3.75 (-89.3%). This +105.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Zillow Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About Z?

8 of 13 models are currently active for Z. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for Z is $11.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.75 on its own, implying -89.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does Z Rank in Internet Content & Information?

Among 78 Internet Content & Information stocks, Z ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Internet Content & Information Stocks →

Zillow Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Internet Content & Information segment means that R&D intensity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is Z a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns Z a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Zillow Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Zillow Group, Inc. scores 7.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +105.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every Z valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across Z's 8 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Zillow Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Content & Information Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Content & Information stocks with 13-model coverage

MAXMediaAlpha, Inc.QOC 7.6ATHMAutohome Inc.QOC 7.5TRVGtrivago N.V.QOC 7.7ZGZillow Group, Inc.QOC 7.4MOMOHello Group Inc.QOC 7.7PPLIPeople IncorporatedQOC 7.2DOYUDouYu International Holdings LimitedQOC 6.3GIFTGiftify, Inc.QOC 4.8SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.QOC 9.2GOOGAlphabet Inc.QOC 9.6METAMeta Platforms, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MAX · ATHM · TRVG · ZG · MOMO · PPLI · DOYU · GIFT · SPOT · GOOG · META

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to Z?

7 companies across all industries closest to Z’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6TSNTyson Foods, Inc.QOC 7.6RSReliance, Inc.QOC 7.5KRThe Kroger Co.QOC 7.6LNCLincoln National CorporationQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LIND · SUNS · TSN · RS · KR · LNC · NVDA

Where Does Z Sit in CirclFi's Internet Content & Information Rankings?

Z is ranked against every other Internet Content & Information stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Internet Content & Information stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Zillow Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Zillow Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)'s intrinsic value at $11.71 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $3.75 to $40.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.75 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is Z overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $34.96, 1 of 8 active models suggest Z may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $11.71, 66.5% below the current price of $34.96 — a consensus view that Z is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Zillow Group, Inc.'s business model in Internet Content & Information.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for Z?

Zillow Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on Z?

CirclFi analyzes Z with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on Z?

Of the 8 models currently active on Z, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $40.63 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $3.75. CirclFi's published fair value for Z is the median of that range, $11.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 315% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is Z a value trap in 2026?

Zillow Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) has a median fair value of $11.71 — 66.5% below the current price of $34.96 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/Z/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this Z valuation
  • Financial statements: Zillow Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001617640) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for Z as of ; valuations recomputed .

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