Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Fair Value 2026

SAFE · REIT - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Safehold Inc. (SAFE) trades at $15.37, versus a $22.73 median fair value across its 6 active models — 47.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAFE
Price
$15.37
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +29.7% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Safehold Inc. (SAFE) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $22.73, 47.9% above the current price of $15.37. Estimates range from $4.38 to $53.95. SAFE scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SAFE’s +47.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Diversified sector median is -20.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Safehold Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SAFE?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.37)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.94 +29.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.38 -71.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $11.87 -22.8%
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What Is SAFE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $4.38 to $53.95

CirclFi's 6 active models place Safehold Inc. (SAFE) between $4.38 and $53.95 per share, a spread of 218% of the median. The median of that range — $22.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SAFE, against a current price of $15.37.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · PWERM
$4.38median $22.73$53.95
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$4.38
Most bullish modelPWERM$53.95
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SAFE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SAFE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Safehold Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $22.73, suggesting a +47.9% median upside from the current price of $15.37. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $53.95 (+251.0%), versus Markov DDM at $4.38 (-71.5%). This +322.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SAFE?

6 of 13 models are currently active for SAFE. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SAFE is $22.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAFE Rank in REIT - Diversified?

Among 18 REIT - Diversified stocks, SAFE ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Diversified space, Safehold Inc. competes in an environment where occupancy rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SAFE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SAFE a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Safehold Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Safehold Inc. is rated at 7.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +322.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAFE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAFE's 6 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Safehold Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

CMRFCIM Group, Inc.QOC 7.1SQFTPresidio Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.4AHRTAH REALTY TRUST INCQOC 7.2GNLGlobal Net Lease, Inc.QOC 6.3WPCW. P. Carey Inc.QOC 7.4NXDTNexPoint Diversified Real Estate TrustQOC 5.6JBGSJBG SMITH PropertiesQOC 5.5AATAmerican Assets Trust, Inc.QOC 7.7GOODGladstone Commercial CorporationQOC 7.4VICIVICI Properties Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CMRF · SQFT · AHRT · GNL · WPC · NXDT · JBGS · AAT · GOOD · VICI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SAFE?

7 companies across all industries closest to SAFE’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc.QOC 7.1NINENine Energy Service, Inc.QOC 7.1HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.QOC 7.1HFFGHF Foods Group Inc.QOC 7.1BEKEKE Holdings Inc.QOC 7.1MASS908 Devices Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EQPT · NINE · HP · HFFG · BEKE · MASS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Safehold Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Safehold Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Safehold Inc. (SAFE)'s intrinsic value at $22.73 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.38 to $53.95. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAFE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.37, 4 of 6 active models suggest SAFE may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $22.73, 47.9% above the current price of $15.37 — a consensus view that SAFE is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Safehold Inc.'s business model in REIT - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for SAFE?

Safehold Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAFE?

CirclFi analyzes SAFE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SAFE?

Of the 6 models currently active on SAFE, PWERM is the most bullish at $53.95 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $4.38. CirclFi's published fair value for SAFE is the median of that range, $22.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 218% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SAFE a value trap in 2026?

Safehold Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Safehold Inc. (SAFE) has a median fair value of $22.73 — 47.9% above the current price of $15.37 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SAFE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SAFE valuation
  • Financial statements: Safehold Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001095651) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SAFE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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