Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) Fair Value 2026

CVGI · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) trades at $3.12, versus a $3.51 median fair value across its 8 active models — 12.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVGI
Price
$3.12
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +76.9% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $3.51, 12.4% above the current price of $3.12. Estimates range from $0.21 to $9.30. CVGI scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CVGI’s +12.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -9.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CVGI?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.20 +2.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $5.52 +76.9%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.21 -93.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.58 -49.4%
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What Is CVGI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.21 to $9.30

CirclFi's 8 active models place Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) between $0.21 and $9.30 per share, a spread of 259% of the median. The median of that range — $3.51 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CVGI, against a current price of $3.12.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$0.21median $3.51$9.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.21
Most bullish modelPWERM$9.30
Model agreement4 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CVGI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CVGI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $3.51, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $3.12. While the median implied return is +12.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +291.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $9.30 (+198.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.21 (-93.4%). This +291.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CVGI?

8 of 13 models are currently active for CVGI. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CVGI is $3.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVGI Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 57 Auto Parts stocks, CVGI ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

Within the Auto Parts space, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. competes in an environment where warranty cost ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CVGI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVGI a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. is rated at 7.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +291.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVGI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVGI's 8 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

DCHDauch CorporationQOC 7.2MNROMonro, Inc.QOC 6.9ADNTAdient plcQOC 7.3CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc.QOC 6.8DANDana IncorporatedQOC 7.5SRIStoneridge, Inc.QOC 6.7GTThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber CompanyQOC 5.9XPELXPEL, Inc.QOC 9.0CAASChina Automotive Systems, Inc.QOC 8.1ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: DCH · MNRO · ADNT · CPS · DAN · SRI · GT · XPEL · CAAS · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CVGI?

7 companies across all industries closest to CVGI’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

DHXDHI Group, Inc.QOC 7.1CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.QOC 7.1ALLYAlly Financial Inc.QOC 7.1SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp.QOC 7.1MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1CEVACEVA, Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DHX · CDRO · ALLY · SDHC · MCS · CEVA · NVDA

Where Does CVGI Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

CVGI is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI)'s intrinsic value at $3.51 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.21 to $9.30. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVGI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.12, 5 of 8 active models suggest CVGI may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $3.51, 12.4% above the current price of $3.12 — a consensus view that CVGI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for CVGI?

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVGI?

CirclFi analyzes CVGI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CVGI?

Of the 8 models currently active on CVGI, PWERM is the most bullish at $9.30 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.21. CirclFi's published fair value for CVGI is the median of that range, $3.51, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 259% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CVGI a value trap in 2026?

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) has a median fair value of $3.51 — 12.4% above the current price of $3.12 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CVGI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CVGI valuation
  • Financial statements: Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001290900) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CVGI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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