Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Fair Value 2026

ASTH · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (64/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) trades at $37.00, versus a $18.20 median fair value across its 10 active models — 50.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 64/100 (DANGER). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $18.64.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASTH
Price
$37.00
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
64/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +12.0% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 64 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $18.20, 50.8% below the current price of $37.00. Estimates range from $0.46 to $83.46. ASTH scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 64/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ASTH’s -50.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -27.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Astrana Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASTH?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.64 -49.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.75 -52.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $41.43 +12.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.14 -83.4%
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What Is ASTH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.46 to $83.46

CirclFi's 10 active models place Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) between $0.46 and $83.46 per share, a spread of 456% of the median. The median of that range — $18.20 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASTH, against a current price of $37.00.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$0.46median $18.20$83.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.46
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$83.46
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASTH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASTH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Astrana Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.20. Trading at its current price of $37.00, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -50.8%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +125.6% (fair value: $83.46), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -98.7% ($0.46). The spread between these extremes — +224.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ASTH?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ASTH. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASTH is $18.20 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $18.64 on its own, implying -49.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASTH Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, ASTH ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Astrana Health, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ASTH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASTH a score of 64/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Astrana Health, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Astrana Health, Inc. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones. The elevated Value Trap score, however, warrants additional due diligence.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +224.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASTH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASTH's 10 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Astrana Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

LFSTLifeStance Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.1CYHCommunity Health Systems, Inc.QOC 7.1AUNAAuna SAQOC 7.2INNVInnovAge Holding Corp.QOC 6.8JYNTThe Joint Corp.QOC 7.2DCGODocGo Inc.QOC 6.8GBCSSelectis Health, Inc.QOC 5.9FOXOFOXO Technologies Inc.QOC 3.9CHEChemed CorporationQOC 8.2ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: LFST · CYH · AUNA · INNV · JYNT · DCGO · GBCS · FOXO · CHE · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASTH?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASTH’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

BRBSBlue Ridge Bankshares, Inc.QOC 7.1ZETAZeta Global Holdings Corp.QOC 7.1ALXAlexander's, Inc.QOC 7.1CVGICommercial Vehicle Group, Inc.QOC 7.1MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BRBS · ZETA · ALX · CVGI · MCS · SDHC · NVDA

Where Does ASTH Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

ASTH is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Astrana Health, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Astrana Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)'s intrinsic value at $18.20 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.46 to $83.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $18.64 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASTH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.00, 2 of 10 active models suggest ASTH may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $18.20, 50.8% below the current price of $37.00 — a consensus view that ASTH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Astrana Health, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for ASTH?

Astrana Health, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASTH?

CirclFi analyzes ASTH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASTH?

Of the 10 models currently active on ASTH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $83.46 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.46. CirclFi's published fair value for ASTH is the median of that range, $18.20, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 456% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASTH a value trap in 2026?

Astrana Health, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 64/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) has a median fair value of $18.20 — 50.8% below the current price of $37.00 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASTH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASTH valuation
  • Financial statements: Astrana Health, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001083446) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASTH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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