LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) Fair Value 2026

LFST · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) trades at $12.30, versus a $2.09 median fair value across its 9 active models — 83.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.95.

Key Facts

Ticker
LFST
Price
$12.30
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $2.09, 83.0% below the current price of $12.30. Estimates range from $0.69 to $10.02. LFST scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LFST’s -83.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LifeStance Health Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LFST?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.30)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.95 -92.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.09 -83.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $3.13 -74.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.69 -94.4%
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What Is LFST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.69 to $10.02

CirclFi's 9 active models place LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) between $0.69 and $10.02 per share, a spread of 446% of the median. The median of that range — $2.09 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LFST, against a current price of $12.30.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.69median $2.09$10.02
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.69
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$10.02
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LFST. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LFST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.09, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $12.30. With 9 out of 9 models flagging downside (-83.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -18.5% (fair value: $10.02), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -94.4% ($0.69). The spread between these extremes — +75.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LFST?

9 of 13 models are currently active for LFST. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for LFST is $2.09 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.95 on its own, implying -92.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LFST Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, LFST ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

LifeStance Health Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LFST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LFST a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for LifeStance Health Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +75.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LFST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LFST's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LifeStance Health Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

FMSFresenius Medical Care AGQOC 7.3JYNTThe Joint Corp.QOC 7.2CONConcentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.QOC 7.5AUNAAuna SAQOC 7.2DVADaVita Inc.QOC 7.5ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.QOC 7.1CCMConcord Medical Services Holdings LimitedQOC 6.1PIIIP3 Health Partners Inc.QOC 4.7NUTXNutex Health Inc.QOC 8.4ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: FMS · JYNT · CON · AUNA · DVA · ASTH · CCM · PIII · NUTX · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LFST?

7 companies across all industries closest to LFST’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2ADPTAdaptive Biotechnologies CorporationQOC 7.2UTLUnitil CorporationQOC 7.2NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.QOC 7.2INGMIngram Micro Holding CorporationQOC 7.2HYNEHoyne Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AFRM · ADPT · UTL · NMRK · INGM · HYNE · NVDA

Where Does LFST Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

LFST is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About LifeStance Health Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST)'s intrinsic value at $2.09 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.69 to $10.02. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.95 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LFST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.30, 0 of 9 active models suggest LFST may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $2.09, 83.0% below the current price of $12.30 — a consensus view that LFST is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for LFST?

LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LFST?

CirclFi analyzes LFST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LFST?

Of the 9 models currently active on LFST, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $10.02 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.69. CirclFi's published fair value for LFST is the median of that range, $2.09, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 446% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LFST a value trap in 2026?

LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) has a median fair value of $2.09 — 83.0% below the current price of $12.30 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LFST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LFST valuation
  • Financial statements: LifeStance Health Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001845257) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LFST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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