LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) Fair Value 2026

LFST · Services-Health Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (37/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) trades at $10.88, approximately 731% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.31. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 37/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LFST
Price
$10.88
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
37/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$1.31 -88.0%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$0.42 -96.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.88 -82.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$2.53 -76.7%

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What Is LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.47, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $10.88. With 13 out of 13 models flagging downside (-77.3% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at -16.3% (fair value: $9.10), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -96.7% ($0.36). The spread between these extremes — +80.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LFST?

13 of 13 models are currently active for LFST. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates LFST's intrinsic value at $1.31, implying -88.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LFST Rank in Services-Health Services?

Among 15 Services-Health Services stocks, LFST ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

LifeStance Health Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LFST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LFST a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for LifeStance Health Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +80.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LFST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LFST's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LifeStance Health Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About LifeStance Health Group, Inc.

What is LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.31. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LFST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.88, 0 of 13 active models suggest LFST may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s business model in Services-Health Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for LFST?

LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LFST?

CirclFi analyzes LFST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LFST a value trap in 2026?

LifeStance Health Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 37/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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