National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Fair Value 2026

NHC · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) trades at $222.26, versus a $101.83 median fair value across its 11 active models — 54.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $77.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
NHC
Price
$222.26
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $101.83, 54.2% below the current price of $222.26. Estimates range from $33.32 to $176.49. NHC scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NHC’s -54.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy National HealthCare Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NHC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($222.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $77.28 -65.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.32 -85.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $88.74 -60.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $176.49 -20.6%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is NHC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $33.32 to $176.49

CirclFi's 11 active models place National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) between $33.32 and $176.49 per share, a spread of 141% of the median. The median of that range — $101.83 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NHC, against a current price of $222.26.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$33.32median $101.83$176.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$33.32
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$176.49
Model agreement0 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NHC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NHC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National HealthCare Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $101.83, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $222.26. With 11 out of 11 models flagging downside (-54.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -20.6% (fair value: $176.49), while EPV is the most conservative at -85.0% ($33.32). The spread between these extremes — +64.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NHC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NHC. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NHC is $101.83 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $77.28 on its own, implying -65.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NHC Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, NHC ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places NHC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

National HealthCare Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NHC a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for National HealthCare Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, National HealthCare Corporation is rated at 8.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +64.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NHC's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy National HealthCare Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9EHCEncompass Health CorporationQOC 8.7NIVFNewGenIvf Group LimitedQOC 2.1UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc.QOC 8.5XCRTXcelerate Inc.QOC 3.2ENSGThe Ensign Group, Inc.QOC 8.5BTMDbiote Corp.QOC 7.7SRTAStrata Critical Medical, Inc.QOC 6.5WWWW International, Inc.QOC 5.5

Read investment analysis: ADUS · EHC · NIVF · UHS · XCRT · ENSG · BTMD · SRTA · WW

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NHC?

7 companies across all industries closest to NHC’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

NWPPNew Peoples Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.7BROSDutch Bros Inc.QOC 8.7PTCTPTC Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.7AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.QOC 8.7SLBKSkyline Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.7SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NWPP · BROS · PTCT · AMD · SLBK · SELF · NVDA

Where Does NHC Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

NHC is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About National HealthCare Corporation’s Valuation?

What is National HealthCare Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)'s intrinsic value at $101.83 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $33.32 to $176.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $77.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $222.26, 0 of 11 active models suggest NHC may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $101.83, 54.2% below the current price of $222.26 — a consensus view that NHC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits National HealthCare Corporation's business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for NHC?

National HealthCare Corporation's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NHC?

CirclFi analyzes NHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NHC?

Of the 11 models currently active on NHC, First Chicago is the most bullish at $176.49 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $33.32. CirclFi's published fair value for NHC is the median of that range, $101.83, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 141% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NHC a value trap in 2026?

National HealthCare Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) has a median fair value of $101.83 — 54.2% below the current price of $222.26 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NHC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NHC valuation
  • Financial statements: National HealthCare Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001047335) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NHC as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on NHC.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for NHC Unlock All 11 — $39/mo