FedEx Corporation (FDX) Fair Value 2026

FDX · Integrated Freight & Logistics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, FedEx Corporation (FDX) trades at $331.41, versus a $180.54 median fair value across its 13 active models — 45.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $180.54.

Key Facts

Ticker
FDX
Price
$331.41
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +83.7% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, FedEx Corporation (FDX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $180.54, 45.5% below the current price of $331.41. Estimates range from $66.94 to $684.56. FDX scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FDX’s -45.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FedEx Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FDX?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($331.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $180.54 -45.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $66.94 -79.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $194.70 -41.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $608.74 +83.7%
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What Is FDX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $66.94 to $684.56

CirclFi's 13 active models place FedEx Corporation (FDX) between $66.94 and $684.56 per share, a spread of 342% of the median. The median of that range — $180.54 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FDX, against a current price of $331.41.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$66.94median $180.54$684.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$66.94
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$684.56
Model agreement3 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FDX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FDX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FedEx Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $180.54. Trading at its current price of $331.41, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -45.5%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +106.6% (fair value: $684.56), while EPV is the most conservative at -79.8% ($66.94). The spread between these extremes — +186.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FDX?

13 of 13 models are currently active for FDX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FDX is $180.54 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $180.54 on its own, implying -45.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FDX Rank in Integrated Freight & Logistics?

Among 37 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, FDX ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places FDX in the top tier.

FedEx Corporation's positioning within the Integrated Freight & Logistics segment means that EV mix percentage plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including emerging market demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FDX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FDX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for FedEx Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FedEx Corporation scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +186.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FDX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FDX's 13 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FedEx Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks with 13-model coverage

ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.8EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.QOC 8.5PSIGPS International Group Ltd.QOC 2.4UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.QOC 8.5ELOGEastern International Ltd.QOC 2.5JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.QOC 8.2GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.QOC 7.7APSIAqua Power Systems Inc.QOC 5.9ATXGAddentax Group Corp.QOC 5.4

Read investment analysis: ZTO · EXPD · PSIG · UPS · ELOG · JBHT · GXO · APSI · ATXG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FDX?

7 companies across all industries closest to FDX’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

VCYTVeracyte, Inc.QOC 8.8VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.QOC 8.8GRCThe Gorman-Rupp CompanyQOC 8.8TCMDTactile Systems Technology, Inc.QOC 8.8STESTERIS plcQOC 8.8MGNIMagnite, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VCYT · VFF · GRC · TCMD · STE · MGNI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About FedEx Corporation’s Valuation?

What is FedEx Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FedEx Corporation (FDX)'s intrinsic value at $180.54 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $66.94 to $684.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $180.54 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FDX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $331.41, 3 of 13 active models suggest FDX may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $180.54, 45.5% below the current price of $331.41 — a consensus view that FDX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FedEx Corporation's business model in Integrated Freight & Logistics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for FDX?

FedEx Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FDX?

CirclFi analyzes FDX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FDX?

Of the 13 models currently active on FDX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $684.56 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $66.94. CirclFi's published fair value for FDX is the median of that range, $180.54, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 342% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FDX a value trap in 2026?

FedEx Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, FedEx Corporation (FDX) has a median fair value of $180.54 — 45.5% below the current price of $331.41 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FDX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FDX valuation
  • Financial statements: FedEx Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001048911) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FDX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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