CompX International Inc. (CIX) Fair Value 2026

CIX · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, CompX International Inc. (CIX) trades at $31.85, versus a $18.00 median fair value across its 11 active models — 43.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $21.48.

Key Facts

Ticker
CIX
Price
$31.85
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is CompX International Inc. (CIX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, CompX International Inc. (CIX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $18.00, 43.5% below the current price of $31.85. Estimates range from $8.87 to $33.02. CIX scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CIX’s -43.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CompX International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CIX?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($31.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.48 -32.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.21 -49.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.00 -43.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.29 -55.1%
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What Is CIX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $8.87 to $33.02

CirclFi's 11 active models place CompX International Inc. (CIX) between $8.87 and $33.02 per share, a spread of 134% of the median. The median of that range — $18.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CIX, against a current price of $31.85.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · FTNN
$8.87median $18.00$33.02
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$8.87
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$33.02
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CIX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CIX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CompX International Inc. (CIX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CompX International Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.00. Trading at its current price of $31.85, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -43.5%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $33.02 (+3.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $8.87 (-72.2%). This +75.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CompX International Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CIX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CIX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CIX is $18.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $21.48 on its own, implying -32.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CIX Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, CIX ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places CIX in the top tier.

CompX International Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CIX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CIX a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for CompX International Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CompX International Inc. scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +75.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CIX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CIX's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CompX International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedQOC 9.3BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3BCOThe Brink's CompanyQOC 8.6NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.QOC 7.7ADTADT Inc.QOC 7.5BKYIBIO-key International, Inc.QOC 6.1SNTSenstar Technologies CorporationQOC 2.9

Read investment analysis: MSA · BRC · ALLE · BCO · NSSC · GEO · ADT · BKYI · SNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CIX?

7 companies across all industries closest to CIX’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

BDLFlanigan's Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.8LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 8.8TAYDTaylor Devices, Inc.QOC 8.8COLLCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.QOC 8.8OSKOshkosh CorporationQOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BDL · LMB · EOG · TAYD · COLL · OSK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About CompX International Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CompX International Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CompX International Inc. (CIX)'s intrinsic value at $18.00 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.87 to $33.02. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $21.48 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CIX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $31.85, 2 of 11 active models suggest CIX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $18.00, 43.5% below the current price of $31.85 — a consensus view that CIX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CompX International Inc.'s business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for CIX?

CompX International Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CIX?

CirclFi analyzes CIX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CIX?

Of the 11 models currently active on CIX, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $33.02 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $8.87. CirclFi's published fair value for CIX is the median of that range, $18.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 134% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CIX a value trap in 2026?

CompX International Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, CompX International Inc. (CIX) has a median fair value of $18.00 — 43.5% below the current price of $31.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CIX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CIX valuation
  • Financial statements: CompX International Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001049606) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CIX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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