Brinks Company (The) (BCO) Fair Value 2026

BCO · Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Brinks Company (The) (BCO) trades at $107.42, approximately 41% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $180.78. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BCO
Price
$107.42
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +68.3% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($107.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$180.78 +68.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$15.14 -85.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$69.26 -35.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$94.90 -11.7%

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What Is Brinks Company (The) (BCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Brinks Company (The)'s intrinsic value is estimated at $74.16. Trading at its current price of $107.42, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -31.0%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $180.78 (+68.3%), versus EROIC at $3.09 (-97.1%). This +165.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BCO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for BCO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BCO's intrinsic value at $180.78, implying +68.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BCO Rank in Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo?

Among 16 Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo stocks, BCO ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places BCO in the top tier.

Brinks Company (The)'s positioning within the Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo segment means that inventory days supply plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fleet renewal cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BCO a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Brinks Company (The). Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Brinks Company (The) scores 9.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +165.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BCO's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Brinks Company (The) Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Brinks Company (The)

What is Brinks Company (The)'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Brinks Company (The) (BCO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $180.78. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $107.42, 2 of 12 active models suggest BCO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Brinks Company (The)'s business model in Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for BCO?

Brinks Company (The)'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BCO?

CirclFi analyzes BCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BCO a value trap in 2026?

Brinks Company (The)'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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