The Brink's Company (BCO) Fair Value 2026

BCO · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Brink's Company (BCO) trades at $109.49, versus a $120.37 median fair value across its 10 active models — 9.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $285.30.

Key Facts

Ticker
BCO
Price
$109.49
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +160.6% upside with 73% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Brink's Company (BCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Brink's Company (BCO) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $120.37, within 9.9% of the current price of $109.49. Estimates range from $7.27 to $285.30. BCO scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BCO’s +9.9% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Brink's Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BCO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($109.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $285.30 +160.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.27 -93.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $115.86 +5.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.03 -84.4%
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What Is BCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $7.27 to $285.30

CirclFi's 10 active models place The Brink's Company (BCO) between $7.27 and $285.30 per share, a spread of 231% of the median. The median of that range — $120.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BCO, against a current price of $109.49.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$7.27median $120.37$285.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$7.27
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$285.30
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Brink's Company (BCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Brink's Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $120.37, suggesting a +9.9% median upside from the current price of $109.49. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $285.30 (+160.6%), versus EPV at $7.27 (-93.4%). This +253.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BCO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for BCO. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BCO is $120.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $285.30 on its own, implying +160.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BCO Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, BCO ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places BCO in the top tier.

The Brink's Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BCO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The Brink's Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Brink's Company scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +253.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BCO's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Brink's Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.QOC 7.7CIXCompX International Inc.QOC 8.8MGMistras Group, Inc.QOC 7.7MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedQOC 9.3ADTADT Inc.QOC 7.5NLNLI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9BAERBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.0GFAIGuardforce AI Co., LimitedQOC 1.9NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BRC · GEO · CIX · MG · MSA · ADT · NL · BAER · GFAI · NSSC · ALLE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to BCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

PCBPCB BancorpQOC 8.6PAYSPaysign, Inc.QOC 8.6GTMZoomInfo Technologies Inc.QOC 8.6TCBSTexas Community Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.6ALKSAlkermes plcQOC 8.6NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PCB · PAYS · GTM · TCBS · ALKS · NGVC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Brink's Company’s Valuation?

What is The Brink's Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Brink's Company (BCO)'s intrinsic value at $120.37 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.27 to $285.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $285.30 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $109.49, 6 of 10 active models suggest BCO may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $120.37, within 9.9% of the current price of $109.49 — a consensus view that BCO is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Brink's Company's business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for BCO?

The Brink's Company's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BCO?

CirclFi analyzes BCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BCO?

Of the 10 models currently active on BCO, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $285.30 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $7.27. CirclFi's published fair value for BCO is the median of that range, $120.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 231% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BCO a value trap in 2026?

The Brink's Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Brink's Company (BCO) has a median fair value of $120.37 — within 9.9% of the current price of $109.49 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BCO valuation
  • Financial statements: The Brink's Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000078890) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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